Apr 29: £35bn hit from Middle East crisis; No inquiry for PM; Caterham Miami Edition

The Middle East energy shock could wipe around £35bn from the UK economy over the next two years in a ‘best-case’ scenario, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr). A more prolonged crisis could lead the UK into recession in the second half of 2024. The Bank of England’s rate-setters are likely to raise interest rates this summer, with potential for up to six hikes in a severe scenario. The Bank will hold rates at tomorrow’s meeting (Apr 30) but is expected to increase them to 4% by July. BP faced criticism for its ‘astronomical’ profits, which surged over 130% in the first three months of 2024 due to soaring crude prices linked to the Iran war. The FTSE 100 firm reported underlying replacement cost profits of £3.2bn (US$3.27bn), up from £1.02bn the previous year and £1.13bn in the previous three months. Analysts had expected £1.97bn. Campaigners accused BP of profiting at the expense of households, as fuel prices rose and energy bills are set to increase further when the price cap is updated in July. Caterham is launching a limited-run Miami Edition of its Seven track day sports car, featuring bespoke Aqua paint, a Miami decal pack, and a numbered dashboard plaque. The car will debut at the Formula One Miami Grand Prix and is exclusively available for the American market, with only 12 units produced. The FTSE 100 rose slightly on Tuesday, closing at 10,332.79, while the FTSE 250 and AIM All-Share fell. The pound weakened against the dollar and euro. Sir Keir Starmer will face MPs after defeating a bid to investigate claims he misled Parliament over the Peter Mandelson affair. The King acknowledged the UK-US alliance’s strength in addressing sexual abuse victims in the wake of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Car dealer group Hendy reported a £18.1m loss in its 2024 accounts, while Motors is rebranding its advertising business as Cazoo, positioning it as a credible challenger to Autotrader. BMW launched a ‘Classic Partner’ pilot scheme for UK dealers. Weather forecasts show sunny and warm conditions across most of the UK today, with light showers expected in the far south-west tonight.