BHP and Rio Tinto pivot to copper as metal boosts profits

Rising copper prices and growing copper output are reshaping BHP and Rio Tinto’s profit mix, raising questions about long term valuations. LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 30, 2026 – should we now rethink the role of the large mining giants BHP Group and Rio Tinto as companies whose profits depend more on their copper portfolio than on steel production? The latest financial results indicate the growing role of copper in the structure of their profitability. Today copper is increasingly shaping the profitability of these companies, as its share of total revenue and the operating profile grows. Rio Tinto released its half-year results: base profit rose 43% – the highest in four years; assets not related to iron ore, including copper, are outperforming iron ore. This signals an important milestone: Rio continues to be a global leader in iron ore production, ahead of Vale and BHP. Over the past twenty years, Rio and BHP have built large mines in Western Australia, meeting rising demand from China. Now China is reducing steel output, while new supplies from predominantly Chinese or African companies appear on the market, notably through the Simandou project. Copper and other metals, critical for the energy transition, are rapidly becoming a growth engine for major mining companies in the coming decades. Copper price dynamics The growth of copper’s role as the main driver of BHP and Rio’s profit growth reflects not only increased production but also rising copper prices. London copper futures during this period peaked at around $14,527.50 per tonne on January 29; as of the latest trade the price closed at about $13,581 per tonne, rising about 68% from a low of $8,105 per tonne on April 7 of the previous year. Iron ore contracts in Singapore traded in a narrow range of $90–$120 per tonne over the last two years; as of Wednesday the price stood around $98.20 per tonne, down 12.3% from the peak of $111.91 on May 11. The long-term approach to copper looks like a more optimistic prospect compared with iron ore: copper is needed for the energy transformation and electrification that support the development of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, while world steel production is likely to grow, but copper supply may be sufficient to meet demand – often with a larger share of secondary material used. The shift in Rio and BHP’s revenue structure is pushing toward a discussion about whether these changes will lead to a re-rating of their shares due to the stronger role of metals in company profitability. There is already some momentum in the market: Rio’s shares reached an all-time high of about A$195.84 in early June, but subsequently retraced and closed at A$165.39. With copper’s rise in Rio and BHP’s earnings, there are notable percentages: Rio’s shares have risen about 51% since the copper rebound began in April last year, while BHP’s shares have advanced about 74.1% over the same period. This indicates that copper’s strength in company earnings is largely reflected in their share prices, not only in the stability of iron ore prices. In sum, BHP Group and Rio Tinto are likely to continue moving toward more copper-oriented portfolios. Copper and related metals remain critically important for the energy transition, and they may determine long-term trends in the business and investment strategies of these two industry leaders.