China Export Growth Slows to 18.2% in June 2026 Amid Tariff Fears and AI Demand - News and Statistics

China's export growth in June likely eased a bit but stayed robust, as companies rushed shipments to the United States in anticipation of fresh tariffs, capitalized on the artificial intelligence surge, and slashed prices to attract budget-conscious buyers. According to a Reuters poll of 20 economists, exports from the world's second-largest economy are projected to have climbed 18.2% year-on-year in dollar terms, a slowdown from May's 19.4% increase. Global investment in AI is offering a crucial lifeline for China's $20 trillion economy, aiding manufacturers in coping with pressures from disruptions tied to Middle East conflicts and a lingering real estate slump. Imports are anticipated to have risen 24% year-on-year, decelerating from 27.4%. South Korea's export data, a common indicator for Chinese imports, implies that demand was fueled by acquisitions of semiconductors and other tech components rather than a broader uptick in domestic consumption. Manufacturing activity figures for June, issued late last month, revealed that overseas demand was starting to pick up. Yet factory-gate prices kept falling as businesses reduced prices to secure orders from foreign clients strained by elevated energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Chinese exporters also benefited as U.S. retailers advanced orders by four to six weeks to build inventory for Black Friday and Christmas sales ahead of anticipated tariff increases later this year. However, uncertainty persists after U.S. President Donald Trump's May trip to Beijing failed to yield the breakthroughs many expected. Economists were divided on China's export performance last month. BNP Paribas and Mizuho Securities both predicted a 20% export rise, sustaining the strong pace observed in the first half of the year. In contrast, Chinese analysts were more cautious, with China Industrial Securities and Shanghai Securities providing the lowest forecasts at just 12%. Exports helped China surpass expectations in the first quarter, but the economy has since lost momentum, heightening worries that weak domestic demand leaves growth increasingly vulnerable to any downturn in foreign markets and strengthening the case for additional policy support. China is set to release its second-quarter GDP figure on Wednesday. The government has established a growth target of between 4.5% and 5%. Last month's trade data underscored a key vulnerability: while semiconductor demand remained robust, most other Chinese exports experienced minimal growth.