China's Promotions and Europe's Heatwave Lower June Decline for Household Air Conditioners

ChinaIOL data shows that in June 2026, China’s household air conditioner production totaled 17.76 million units, down 5.4% YoY; sales reached 18.195 million units, down 7.3% YoY. Of which, exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% YoY; domestic sales were 11.402 million units, down 7.4% YoY. According to the data, the market remains on a downward trajectory, but the overall decline is narrowing, and both domestic sales and exports are showing signs of recovery. Domestic Sales Market: Boosted by the 618 Shopping Festival, Downward Trend Narrows In the domestic sales market, the decline in household air conditioner shipments noticeably narrowed in June, mainly boosted by the 618 shopping festival, which helped destock online inventory and prompted some restocking among enterprises. However, terminal market performance during 618 still fell short of previous years. On the cost side, prices remained high and fluctuated, while end-user prices were still locked in fierce competition. Sales of mid- to high-end products have declined to some extent this year, the overall price structure of the market has been shifting downward, and enterprise profitability is facing considerable pressure. With June ending, some listed home appliance companies are about to release semi-annual reports, and driven by the pressure of financial reporting, enterprises are likely to sell more aggressively in June in an effort to give a good account to the market. Cumulative domestic sales in January–June reached 62.822 million units, down 5.6% YoY. As the data indicates, the overall domestic sales market in H1 remained under pressure, coming from persistently high costs and inventories on the one hand, and from the phasing out of state subsidies and diminishing marginal returns on the other. Consumers who have been ‘educated’ by low prices now have longer and more cautious purchasing cycles, which feeds back into the market as price involution across the industry. In such an environment, the industry is undergoing a new wave of reshuffling, and enterprises without orders or with poor profitability will be eliminated from the market. Export Market: Decline Narrowing in Sync, Localized Heatwaves Facilitate Destocking In the export market, although some regional markets have seen a partial recovery, exports still fell 7.1% YoY and 10.4% MoM. The dual decline was mainly due to some regions entering the off-season, coupled with accumulated inventory pressure, making overseas dealers less willing to restock. As high temperatures overseas gradually subside, market sales will slowly taper off, and the export scale is expected to return to around 5 million units by July. This is also part of the seasonal structural changes in household air conditioners; as the export off-season sets in, the focus will gradually shift back to the domestic sales market. Cumulative exports in January–June reached 52.703 million units, down 6.8% YoY. In H1 this year, the household air conditioner export market exhibited regional divergence and uneven recovery, with climate, inventory, economic, and policy cycle mismatches being the core influencing factors, while aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts and differing national policies further amplified market uncertainty. In addition, climate trends, inventory cycles, the pace of economic recovery, and changes in trade and energy efficiency policies in core countries vary across regions. Taking Europe as an example, the booming Western European market contrasts with the sluggish Eastern European market. Moreover, the data does not fully represent the overall market picture, and the characteristics of different markets need to be considered. The Western European market is dominated by rental housing, and coupled with local installation policy restrictions, extreme heat has boosted sales of portable air conditioners. In addition, market expectations regarding the weather are also driving growth. However, structural divergence remains pronounced. According to ChinaIOL, the inventory of split-type air conditioners in the Western European market is still saturated, and installation difficulties and environmental protection restrictions have been constraining the growth of split-type units. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations. Images in this article contain AI-translated captions for reference only.