GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2026

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following revised growth of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. In output terms, all three sectors contributed to growth in the latest quarter; the largest contribution came from the services sector, growing by 0.8%. GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 1.4% annually in 2025, following revised growth of 1.0% in 2024 (previously 1.1%). Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. In line with the updated National Accounts Revisions Policy, this bulletin includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025; there have been small plus and minus 0.1 percentage point revisions to growth across both these years. UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following revised growth of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 (Figure 1). Our monthly GDP figures published today also show that GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2026, following growth of 0.4% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from growths of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively, in our previous publication). In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. There have been small plus and minus 0.1 percentage point revisions to the quarters across 2024 and 2025; mainly reflecting revised source data, changes to seasonal adjustment factors and a review of previously applied balancing adjustments. We have separately published a comprehensive methodology explaining how we assess for residual seasonality. To bring this information together, we have incorporated experiences both internationally (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis) and academic expertise (University of Southampton). Today, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also published a blog that discusses how the ONS monitors the quality of our seasonally adjusted estimates in times of dynamic economic activity. Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.28 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality. Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is now 4.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 3.5% in Quarter 1 2026, mainly caused by household expenditure, gross capital formation, general government, and exports. Real annual GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 1.4% in 2025 (Figure 3). Growth in 2024 has been revised down slightly to 1.0% (previously 1.1%), with the three approaches showing growth in the range of 0.8% to 1.2%. There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). There are various reasons for this uncertainty, and these are further discussed in Section 11: Data sources and quality. Output is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Overall, in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, there were increases in 14 out of 20 subsectors of GDP. The services sector increased by 0.8%, while the construction sector increased by 0.4% and production by 0.2%. Services Services output increased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, following a 0.2% increase in Quarter 4 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.4% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by 0.7%, while consumer-facing services grew by 0.8%. The largest positive contributor to growth was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, which grew by 2.0%. This was driven by growth of 3.1% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 1.6% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, as shown in our Retail sales bulletin. Despite the recent growth, the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector remains below levels seen in 2022, and is only 0.3% higher in March 2026 than in the same month last year. The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 1 2026 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 1.0%, mainly because of declines in rental and leasing activities, and employment activities. More detail on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: March 2026 bulletin. The production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 1 2026, following a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be unchanged compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in production output in the latest quarter was mainly because of a growth of 0.8% in manufacturing and a growth of 0.6% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. These growths were partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying, which was down 4.5% and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, which fell by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2026. Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 8 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter. The largest positive contributions to the growth were the manufacture of transport equipment, which increased by 5.7%, driven by a 10.9% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This is a base effect caused by the comparison to Quarter 4 2025. This includes October 2025 when the industry had not recovered fully from impacts of a cyber incident in August 2025. Further detail on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: March 2026 bulletin. Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 1 2026 but remains 1.3% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. Repair and maintenance grew by 3.4% over the period, whereas new work fell by 1.9%. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.1%. In new work, the largest negative contributor was private new housing, which fell by 2.6%. Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2026 bulletin. Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, which was mainly caused by increases in gross capital formation: other, household consumption and government consumption. Within gross capital formation: other, the largest contribution was from acquisitions less disposals of valuables, which increased by £4.5 billion between Quarter 4 2025 and Quarter 1 of 2026. This component is largely made up of non-monetary gold, which also appears within net trade, so the effect is GDP neutral. There was a 0.6% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 1 2026. Household consumption is now estimated to be up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Within household consumption in the latest quarter, growth was caused by increases in miscellaneous, food and drink, recreation and culture, and transport. Net tourism made little contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.6% in the latest quarter. Consumption of government goods and services Real government consumption expenditure grew by 0.4% in Quarter 1 2026, and is now estimated to be 1.4% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in education, health, and social care. Gross capital formation Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is now estimated to be 0.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the fall are the result of declines in intellectual property products and dwellings. Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter and is now estimated to be 1.8% lower than it was in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories increased by £2,352 million in Quarter 1 2026.