GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2026

In the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025: Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6%, following a growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026 and a growth of 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication). Services output grew by 0.8%, after showing a growth of 0.6% in the three months to February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication). Production output grew by 0.2%; this follows a growth of 1.1% in the three months to February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication). Construction output grew by 0.4%, following five consecutive three-monthly falls, including the three months to February 2026 falling by 1.9% (revised up from a fall of 2.0% in our previous publication). In the month to March 2026: Monthly GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from growths of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively, in our previous publication). Services and construction output both grew, by 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively - these growths were partially offset by a 0.2% fall in production. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. This follows an unrevised growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, and a growth of 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication). The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 0.8% in services output. Production output grew by 0.2% in the three months to March 2026, and construction output grew by 0.4%. In this release, all industries are open for revision from January 2024. Our National Accounts Revisions Policy has been updated to ensure we reflect the dynamic nature of the UK economy. Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 7: Revisions to GDP. As also mentioned in our quarterly GDP release, there have been small revisions to the months across 2024 and 2025, mainly reflecting updated source data and changes to seasonal adjustment factors. We have separately published a comprehensive note on how we assess for residual seasonality. In bringing this information together we have drawn on experiences both internationally (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis) and from academic expertise (University of Southampton). Today we have also published a blog from James Benford looking at how we adjust GDP to remove seasonal effects. Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update the estimates with that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions. Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in March 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication), and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication). Services output grew by 0.3%, production fell by 0.2%, and construction grew by 1.5% in March 2026. Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.4%, production showed no growth, and construction fell by 1.3%. GDP is estimated to be 1.2% higher in March 2026 compared with the same month a year ago. Other indicators also report economic strength in the month of March. For example, our 23 April 2026 Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators publication reported that: "Business and workforce indicators were more positive than in the previous month. A higher net proportion of firms reported month‐on‐month growth in turnover, led by the services sector, and the number of potential redundancies fell." Services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. Services were the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to March 2026. This follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication), and 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication). There was a rise in output in 11 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to March 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from: wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 2.0%), driven by a growth of 3.1% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 1.6% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; more information on this subsector is available in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles section information and communication (up 1.7%), driven by growth in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (up 3.0%) and publishing activities (up 7.2%) professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.2%), driven by growth in advertising and market research (up 7.0%) and activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (up 2.3%) The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from: administrative and support service activities (down 1.0%), driven by falls in rental and leasing activities (down 4.1%) and employment activities (down 4.1%) arts, entertainment and recreation (down 0.9%), because of a fall of 2.2% in sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities Services output grew by 0.3% on the month in March 2026. This follows an unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication). In March 2026, there was widespread growth across services output, with 11 of the 14 subsectors showing growth. The largest positive contribution to services sector output in March 2026 came from information and communication, which grew by 1.1%, following four consecutive months of growth. A growth of 6.0% in information service activities was the largest positive contributor to the subsector after falling by 7.5% in February 2026 (revised down from a fall of 6.5% in our previous publication). Computer programming, consultancy and related activities also contributed positively to the subsector (up 1.1%). The second-largest positive contribution came from accommodation and food service activities (up 1.3%), where there was growth in both accommodation (up 2.9%) and food and beverage service activities (up 0.6%). Human health and social work activities also contributed to the output growth, with a rise of 0.4% in March 2026. This was because of a growth of 0.5% in the human health activities industry. These growths were partially offset by a fall of 0.2% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles The wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector grew by 2.0% in the three months to March 2026 and was the largest positive contributor at the subsector level to GDP growth. This was the largest three-monthly growth in this subsector since August 2021. Despite the recent growth, this subsector remains below levels seen in 2022, and is only 0.3% higher in March 2026 than in the same month last year. Consumer-facing services Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from: retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.6%) food and beverage service activities (up 1.1%) other personal service activities (up 2.0%) The largest negative contributions in this period came from: sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities (down 2.2%) travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 1.2%) Consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in March 2026, following a fall of 0.1% in February 2026 (revised down from no growth in our previous publication). The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.7%) and other personal service activities (up 2.5%). The largest negative contribution came from travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which fell by 6.4% following a growth of 4.9% in February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 4.8% in our previous publication). More information on consumer-facing services is available in our Consumer-facing services: March 2026 dataset. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.7% in March 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.5%, respectively. More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: March 2026 release. Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. This follows a growth of 1.1% in the three months to February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication). The growth in production output in the three months to March 2026 was mainly because of a growth of 0.8% in manufacturing, and a growth of 0.6% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. These growths were partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying, which was down by 4.5%, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, which fell by 0.5%, in the three months to March 2026. Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% on the month in March 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication) and a fall of 0.1% in January 2026.