Gold price prediction today: Gold falls to nearly 11-week low before recovering; check June 9, 2026 outlook

Gold is still not out of the woods as oil prices remain elevated with an upside risk. (AI image) Gold price prediction today : Gold prices continue to be under pressure as crude oil prices remain high, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. Gold Performance: On June 8, spot gold extended its decline to $4268 -- lowest since March 23-- as Middle East tensions escalated yet again with Iran and Israel trading military strikes. Consequently, oil prices surged that further amplified rate hike concerns on inflation worries. However, the yellow metal recovered as Iran and Israel eventually ended their attacks. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading with an intra-day gain of 0.39% at $4345. Earlier, in the week ending June 5, the shiny metal slumped 4.67% on a much stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report (May) and stalemate in US-Iran negotiations as Israel and Lebanon continued to attack each other despite ceasefire announcements in the US on Wednesday. Geopolitics and oil: Israel and Iran engaged in a skirmish on Sunday, with Israel intercepting Iran’s airstrikes while striking targets in Tehran and Mahshahr on Monday. Iran, in a rare display of taking cudgel on behalf of its proxy Hezbollah, began its offensive with a warning that it will target all oil and gas facilities linked to Israel, the US and their allies in the region if attacks on its own energy infrastructure continue. Yemen's Houthis, another Iranian proxy, also fired missiles on Israel as they vowed to ramp up the attack depending on the situation. Israel continues to maintain that it cannot allow any ceasefire term concerning Hezbollah. Crude oil prices, which had slumped over 2% on Friday, surged over 5% on Monday before trimming the intra-day gains to 1.5% at the time of writing as Israel and Iran ended their strikes. Data roundup: NY one-year inflation expectations data released on Monday showed that expectations eased from 3.64% to 3.46% Vs the estimate of 3.72%, which also helped gold recover. The US non-farm payroll report, released on Friday, was robust. US employers added 172K jobs in May, nearly twice the estimate of 88K jobs. Two-month payroll revision was 93K, a sharp variation from the trend of hefty job revisions. Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3% (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%), while earnings grew 3.4% y-o-y -- in line with the forecast-- though lagged the prior month's pace of 3.6% y-o-y. Average weekly hours of all employees at 34.3 matched the estimate and the previous month's data. Labour force participation rate and unemployment rate were steady at 61.8% and 4.3%, respectively. It was the third consecutive encouraging job report, which will alleviate the Fed’s concerns about the labour market; thus, rate hike probability has increased. US Dollar Index and yields: At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index at 99.95 was down 0.10%. The Index surged to 100.06 -- nine-week high-- in the week ending June 5. Two-year US yields, which shot up by 4% to 4.15% last week, were steady, while ten-year yields, up 2.5% to 4.53% last week, were up 1 bps. Gold ETF holdings: Total known global gold ERTF holdings stood at 98.20 MOz -- lowest since February 4 and down 0.75 MOz YTD. Holdings have fallen 2.72 MOz since the Iran war began on February 28. CFTC positioning: As per the CFTC data for the week ending June 2, money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 14,410 net-long positions to 111,341 -- the most bullish in 18 weeks, while long-only positions rose 4,726 lots to 129,260 -- the highest in 11 weeks. Short-only positions fell from 9,684 lots to 17,919 lots -- the lowest in about 16 months. China buys gold for the nineteenth straight month: PBoC, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak in May to the 19th straight month as it bought 320,000 troy ounces last month. It is the longest since at least 2015, when the PBOC began publishing more regular updates on its gold reserves. Upcoming data and events: Major US data on tap this week include US June CPI (June 10), PPI report (June 11), and University of Michigan Sentiment and inflation expectations (June 12). Traders will also keep a tab on the Eurozone's Q1 GDP final data (June 5) and China's trade balance (June 9) and inflation data (June 10). The European Central Bank will deliver its monetary policy on June 11 wherein the Bank is widely expected to hike rates by 25 bps as inflation concerns mount due to high oil prices. Gold Price Outlook : Despite its tentative recovery on Monday as Iran and Israel de-escalated tensions, gold is still not out of the woods as oil prices remain elevated with an upside risk. Strong US data continues to support the rate hike thesis. Key data like ISM manufacturing, ISM services, non-farm payroll report, etc. have been robust and show the US economy’s resilience amid high oil prices. US CPI data will be closely watched by traders. Overall, the gold outlook remains bearish. It is advisable to sell into rallies as it may fall to $4000 in the coming weeks. Support is at $4250/$4099. Resistance is at $4366/$4400/$45