Gold price prediction today: Will upside in gold be capped due to rising oil prices? Check April 28, 2026 outlook

Gold price prediction today: Any upside in gold prices is likely to be capped by gains in crude oil prices, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. Gold Performance: Spot gold prices came under renewed selling pressure Monday as oil prices surged due to stalled US-Iran talks. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading at $4678, down by 0.75% for the day. In the week ending April 24, the yellow metal closed with a weekly loss of 2.5% at $4710, its first weekly loss in five weeks. Geopolitics and oil: The US-Iran meeting scheduled for the weekend in Pakistan did not take place. Iran proposed lifting the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reopening the strait to resume oil transit, with nuclear negotiations to follow. The White House has not indicated a positive response, focusing on protecting American interests. Daily oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to near zero, down from about 135 before the conflict began on February 28. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy warned of a potential supply loss of around one billion barrels if the strait reopens slowly. Data roundup: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity fell by 2.3% in April, below the expected increase of 0.90%. University of Michigan consumer sentiment in April’s final reading was 49.8, near record lows, while one-year inflation expectations were at 4.7%, matching estimates. Ten-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% from an estimated 3.4%. China’s fiscal spending in March fell 2.5% year-over-year, while Q1 economic growth expanded 5%, the fastest in three quarters. Dollar Index declined on April 27 due to hopes of US-Iran talks. The Index was at 98.39, down 0.15%. Two-year US yields rose by 2 bps to 3.80%, while 10-year yields rose by 3 bps to 4.33%. CFTC positioning: Gold bullish bets decreased by 3,352 net-long positions to 95,498 in the week ending April 21. Long-only positions fell by 2,730 to 125,908, while short-only positions rose to 30,410, the highest in almost six months. India’s gold imports fell to $59.59 billion in March 2026, down 6.5% year-over-year, with imports dropping over 50% from March 2025 due to front-loaded buying, subdued retail demand, and tighter liquidity. ETF holdings: Global gold ETF holdings stood at 99 million ounces as of April 24, up slightly year-to-date but down since the Iran war began on February 28. Upcoming data and events: Major US data releases include ADP weekly employment change (April 28), Conference Board consumer confidence (April 28), real personal spending (April 30), PCE Price Index (April 30), Q1 GDP (April 30), and ISM manufacturing Index (May 1). China’s PMIs and Eurozone’s April CPI will be released on April 30. Investors will also monitor the FOMC’s monetary policy decision on April 29, the Bank of Japan’s decision on April 28, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank’s decisions on April 30. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady at 0.75%, while the ECB and BoE may signal rate hikes by year-end due to inflation risks. The Fed is expected to deliver minimal rate cuts by year-end. Gold Price Outlook: Spot gold faces continued downside pressure unless oil prices decline. US-Iran talks are critical. The US FOMC may adopt a hawkish stance on April 29. Gold may test support at $4600 in the short term, with interim support at $4667 and next major support at $4447. Resistance is at $4745/$4833.