‘It’s going to be a very tough time’: More flight cancellations likely as fuel crisis bites

The aviation industry has faced geopolitical turmoil, war, terrorism, and oil crises for decades, but a looming jet fuel crunch could introduce new challenges. After warnings from airline bosses and energy experts that supplies would soon start to dwindle, Lufthansa was the first major European carrier to cancel 20,000 short-haul flights, including the Frankfurt to Cork route, to reduce fuel consumption. The airline explicitly stated this was due to rising fuel costs, not an immediate shortage. Aer Lingus announced a 2% reduction in its summer schedule, affecting up to 23,000 passengers on 430 flights, due to mandatory aircraft maintenance. This decision was met with surprise as observers questioned why such maintenance couldn’t be scheduled during less busy periods. Irish aviation entrepreneur Ulick McEvaddy, who attended a conference on air refuelling in the US, expressed a bleak outlook for the rest of the year, predicting significant flight cancellations. He cited a friend’s cancelled flight from Amsterdam and warned of a severe impact on the industry, likening it to the 1970s energy crisis. The threat of a fuel shortage is compounded by geopolitical tensions. McEvaddy warned that if the Houthis shut down the Red Sea, via the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping would be severely disrupted. He noted that while fuel could potentially be sourced from the US, it would be costly and take time. Analyst Stephen Furlong from Davy Aviation criticized media reports, stating that while jet fuel does need management, it is not an existential crisis. He noted that airlines like Aer Lingus and Ryanair have hedged most of their fuel costs, while US carriers face higher exposure due to lack of hedging. KLM grounded 150 flights due to rising costs, and Schiphol Airport offered a 10% discount to carriers for a year. US airlines like United and American Airlines have increased baggage fees and fares, while curtailing benefits for economy passengers. Furlong suggested that solutions might emerge over the summer, but if the Gulf situation worsens, airlines could take more drastic measures in winter. The EU transport commissioner dismissed immediate intervention, stating there is no evidence of shortages and no need to alter travel plans. Oil futures remained above $100 per barrel, signaling ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher fuel costs for travelers.