Johor state election: Five key battles to watch for political shifts

JOHOR BAHRU – Nomination Day on June 27 is done, the candidates are confirmed, and Malaysia’s most consequential string of state elections in years is now officially under way. The results will not just determine who governs the southernmost state for the next five years, but also whether Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can secure a second term due in early 2028. Pakatan Harapan (PH) won just one seat at the November Sabah polls – a huge setback as Sabahans chose locally based parties. Johor – as well as Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, which are set to follow later in 2026 – will reflect more of the sentiment on the peninsula, home to 165 of Malaysia’s 222 federal constituencies and thus a far better barometer of the national mood. Johor’s July 11 vote kicks off four state elections in 10 months, after which Anwar will have just eight months left to call a general election. Barisan Nasional (BN) is expected to retain its home state, but PH, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) will all be looking to make gains. New entrant Parti Bersama Malaysia, helmed by Rafizi Ramli, adds another wild card. Here are the five big battles showing how support from key demographics has shifted – and what that means for Malaysia’s political landscape. A light-hearted moment during the ballot draw for the Johor Jaya candidates saw their order coinciding with their heights. ST PHOTO: LU WEI HOONG Johor’s electoral roll largely reflects the national demographic, with Malays, ethnic Chinese and other communities making up roughly a 60:30:10 ratio. But in about a quarter of the 56 wards, Chinese voters form the largest bloc. The loss of what has since 2008 been a key plank of PH’s support has given BN’s Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) hope that it can reclaim some of these seats. Internal sources told The Straits Times that Tangkak is a priority target, followed by Johor Jaya given the slim margins of victory for PH’s Democratic Action Party (DAP) in 2022. Should MCA succeed, this would be viewed as evidence that disenchantment among Chinese voters with PH is indeed a national trend, and would bode ill for PH’s hopes of coming out on top again at the next general election. Johor Jaya Lee Wern Yiing (PH-DAP) Chan San San (BN-MCA) Lau Yi Leong (Bersama) Lim Hun Peaw (Independent) Tangkak Ee Chin Li (PH-DAP) Haw Chin Teck (BN-MCA) After Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) said on June 8 it was pausing its cooperation with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the immediate question was which of these co-founders of the PN would have custody of the coalition after the divorce. As it turns out, they are still co-parenting, and both will use the PN logo while running separate campaigns in Johor. Nonetheless, this is Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin’s home state, where he was once chief minister. The Bukit Kepong seat in his parliamentary constituency of Pagoh will be a test of whether the former prime minister remains a force. “It doesn’t matter. I didn’t ask anyone to help us campaign,” he told reporters after accompanying Bersatu’s Bukit Kepong candidate Sahruddin Jamal to the nomination centre. “So far, we will continue to work hard based on our own strength, as well as the policies and track record we have built over the years. I am confident voters know how to make their choice,” he said. This will be especially pertinent after the exodus of most of Bersatu’s lawmakers, who followed sacked deputy president Hamzah Zainudin into his new Parti Wawasan Negara, which has been embraced by PAS. Bersatu also managed to pull off a coup after UMNO’s incumbent in the central ward of Layang-Layang defected to defend his seat, as BN handed the candidacy to MCA this time. BN has never lost the seat, so a Bersatu win would be a huge fillip for Muhyiddin. Bukit Kepong Sahruddin Jamal (PN-Bersatu) Syaipul Bahari Harun (BN-UMNO) Subramani Chami (PH-PKR) Layang-Layang Mutalip Rahim (PN-Bersatu) Chua Jian Boon (BN-MCA) Guna Balakrishnan (PH-PKR) Larkin candidates Hairi Mad Shah (right) from Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan’s Suhaizan Kayat (second from left) and Bersama’s Norsinah Abu (left). ST PHOTO: HARITH MUSTAFFA Located in the heart of Johor Bahru, Larkin is shaping up to be a contest between two potential chief ministers. Incumbent Hairi Mad Shah – UMNO Youth vice-chief and holder of the youth and sports portfolio that once launched Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s rise to menteri besar – faces Parti Amanah Negara’s Suhaizan Kayat, a federal MP and former Johor assembly speaker. Within the PH structure, Amanah is nominally the lead party for Johor. Suhaizan, the party’s state vice-chief, is its highest-profile candidate. “We leave it to the people to choose the best leader to lead the people of Johor,” said Suhaizan, indicating the importance of the Larkin contest. As part of Johor Bahru’s rapidly developing “golden circle”, the constituency reflects growing concerns among urban Malays over redevelopment, the loss of traditional Malay villages and rising living costs. The result will offer a gauge of where urban Malay voters place their hopes, especially given the two main candidates are viewed as potential leaders for Johor. “They are elephants while I’m just a mousedeer,” said Bersama’s Norsinah Abu of the stature of her opponents, and also in reference to the party’s logo. Larkin has swung before. PH wrested it from BN in 2018, before BN reclaimed it in 2022. Larkin Hairi Mad Shah (BN-UMNO) Suhaizan Kayat (PH-Amanah) Norsinah Abu (Bersama) Pakatan Harapan's Maszlee Malik and MUDA's Rashifa Aljunied outside the nomination centre on June 27. ST PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR Apart from hosting large numbers of Chinese voters, middle-income urban constituencies have largely gone with PH (or its previous incarnation Pakatan Rakyat) since 2013. Ostensibly, they seem more in tune with national issues than with local sentiment, where save for 2018, Johoreans have largely continued to back BN to run the state. Hence, they could give us an insight into whether urban voters are ready to give new and smaller parties a chance. Two seats in particular stand out. Youth-centric party MUDA took Puteri Wangsa in 2022, the only party outside of the three main coalitions to win a seat in the assembly. But it did so as part of an electoral pact with PH, and they have since gone their separate ways. If MUDA manages to hold onto the seat, it could signal that those disappointed with the Anwar administration are ready to dump PH and go with other progressive parties. Similarly in Bukit Batu, Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) clung on to the seat by a mere 137 votes, the smallest margin of all 56 contests. This is where Rafizi’s Bersama is most likely to score a win. But it is also just as likely that the part may split the PH vote bank and pave the way for BN to reclaim the constituency. “We know people don’t vote for state independent of their views on national issues. If our vote tally is comparable to that of one of the bigger coalitions that would be groundbreaking,” said Rafizi, a former PKR deputy president. Puteri Wangsa Rashifa Aljunied (MUDA) Maszlee Malik (PH-PKR) Teow Chia Ling (BN-MCA) Nicholas Paul Vincent (Bersama) Wang Wee Siong (Independent) Bukit Batu Arthur Chiong Sen Sern (PH-PKR) Kumaran Ramakrishnan (BN-MIC) Premanand Maniam (MUDA) Tamili Gopalakrishnan (Bersama) Kamaruzaman Ali (Independent) Pakatan Harapan supporters outside the nomination centre on June 27. ST PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR PAS has taken a conservative approach to the Johor polls, fielding just 11 candidates, fewer than the 15 if fielded in 2022. This is perhaps due to the fact that it will not have Bersatu’s backing in Muhyiddin’s backyard, thus reducing its chances of victory. But if PAS were to make inroads in Johor, it will likely be via the northeast, in the direction of its strongholds of Kelantan and Terengganu further north. The defection of Alwiyah Talib from Bersatu to UMNO in the northeasternmost ward of Endau, presents PAS an opportunity to test whether its growing influence in other non-traditional states like Pahang, Perak and Selangor, will also be seen here. Endau Alwiyah Talib (BN-UMNO) Hasnul Hakimi Hussien (PN-PAS) Saiful Nizam Samat (PH-PKR) Jati Awang (Malaysian Orang Asli Party) Additional reporting by Lok Jian Wen