Lebanon Enters Fragile Talks with Israel Amid Ongoing Conflict

Lebanon is again engulfed in war, with the government struggling to find a way to end the bloodshed. President Joseph Aoun has proposed negotiating directly with Israel, a significant step for two countries that do not recognize each other.

A meeting between ambassadors from both countries is scheduled to take place in Washington, focusing on a ceasefire. However, with very limited influence over Hezbollah, what can the Lebanese government do? And what are the chances of finding lasting peace?

Hezbollah's History and Influence

Hezbollah, or the Party of God in Arabic, was created in the 1980s during Israel's occupation of Lebanon. The group has been financed, trained, and armed by Iran, and the destruction of Israel remains one of its official goals.

In 1989, the Taif Agreement mandated the disarmament of all militias and introduced a power-sharing deal between sects in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah managed to keep its weapons, and the United Nations Resolution 1701, which demanded the group's disarmament, has never been fully implemented.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by countries including the UK and the US. But in Lebanon, it is a political party represented in parliament and the government, and a social movement that runs services including schools and hospitals.

A Government Without Cards

President Aoun has defended a policy he calls the "state monopoly on arms." As part of the ceasefire deal in 2024, Hezbollah agreed to remove its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon. However, the group's secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has rejected discussing a full, nationwide disarmament.

Aoun has warned that action to remove Hezbollah's weapons without its consent could lead to violence. "We can't let the country descend into another civil war," he said. Amid continued Israeli attacks and Hezbollah's refusal to negotiate, Aoun's plan seems limited.

Chances of Lasting Peace

Nicholas Blanford, the author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel, says that given Iran's role, any decision about the group's path would likely be made not in Beirut, but in Tehran.

Hezbollah's narrative that its weapons are needed in a state that is unable to defend its territory has been boosted by Israel's invasion of Lebanon. The group is unlikely to disarm, as its military component is its "beating heart," according to Blanford.

Over 1.2 million people have been displaced in Lebanon since the start of the conflict, exacerbating sectarian tensions. Clashes have erupted in some areas, and residents are suspicious of new arrivals.