Nomura: "Semiconductor Super Cycle Only Beginning... Samsung Electronics and SK hynix Are Top Picks"

Nomura Securities' Outlook for the Korean Stock Market KOSPI Target Raised to 11,000 Nomura Securities has analyzed that the semiconductor super cycle is only just beginning. The company also predicted that the probability of South Korea being included on the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Developed Markets Watch List is 60%. On June 12, Nomura Securities held the "2026 Korea Economic and Stock Market Media Briefing" at the Seoul Finance Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, and made these remarks. Jung Changwon, Co-Head of Asia Research at Nomura Securities, emphasized, "If you look at the monthly memory sales this year, you can see a vertical increase—something never seen before." He added, "Investors often wonder whether they should sell when memory prices flatten out after a vertical surge, but the important thing is valuation. Taking this into account, I believe the semiconductor super cycle is only just starting." On May 20, Nomura raised its upper KOSPI target to 11,000. The company also increased its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to 5.9 million won and 5 million won, respectively. Park Seyoung, Head of Korea Research, identified the AI semiconductor cycle and the growing demand for electricity as the main drivers behind the KOSPI's rise. Park stated, "While the AI value chain is crucial, both the defense and automotive sectors will also lead the stock market," and highlighted Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Hyundai Rotem, Kia, and Samsung SDI as top picks. Park estimated that the probability of Korea being added to the MSCI Developed Markets Watch List in this month's announcement is around 60%. However, this is not Nomura Securities' official figure. He explained, "Every year, MSCI cites issues related to the foreign exchange market as reasons for excluding Korea from the Watch List. However, the government is making efforts such as implementing 24-hour trading in the foreign exchange market, and aside from these issues, I see no reason Korea should not be included." The KRW-USD exchange rate is expected to remain high for the time being. Park Jungwoo, Nomura economist, said, "We expect the exchange rate to fall to 1,470 won by year-end and 1,420 won next year, but through the third quarter of this year, it will likely stay in the 1,500 won range." He added, "There are not many factors that would cause the exchange rate to drop sharply in the short term, which is a widely shared view."