South Africa Has Maize to Export, but Kenya’s Rules Block Wider Access

Kenya expects its maize harvest to fall by 40% in 2026, increasing its reliance on imports as domestic demand exceeds 4.5 million tonnes a year. Zambia has agreed to supply Kenya with 540,000 tonnes of white maize, while Kenya’s grain millers have requested duty-free authorization for nearly 3 million tonnes of imports. South African maize faces both regulatory and tariff barriers in Kenya: about 85% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modified, while Kenyan imports from South Africa face a 50% tariff. On Sept. 10, 2026, Zambia’s Food Reserve Agency (FRA) signed an agreement in Lusaka to ship 540,000 tonnes of white maize to Kenya. The shipment will arrive in six lots, with the first five lots carrying 100,000 tonnes each and the final lot carrying 40,000 tonnes. The parties did not disclose the value of the agreement. For Zambia, the deal comes as the country expects its maize harvest to approach 5 million tonnes this year after favorable weather conditions. As Africa’s second-largest maize producer, Zambia has significant exportable surpluses that can support regional maize trade. For Kenya, the shipment provides additional supply as the country expects its maize harvest to decline by 40% this year. Drought, insufficient rainfall and irregular precipitation have weighed on Kenyan yields. The additional imports should therefore help ease short-term pressure on maize supplies and prices. However, Kenya still faces a significant supply gap. The Cereal Millers Association (CMA) has asked the government to authorize duty-free imports of nearly 3 million tonnes of white maize. Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary has yet to decide on the request. Kenya imported an average of 500,000 tonnes of maize a year between 2021 and 2025 for 17 billion shillings ($130 million), according to official data. That volume makes Kenya Africa’s fourth-largest maize importer after Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. Domestic supply fluctuates with weather conditions and has structurally struggled to meet annual demand of more than 4.5 million tonnes. When Export Capacity Meets Regulatory Barriers The Zambia-Kenya deal benefits both sides, but South African exporters face a different situation. South Africa has significant export capacity and could also target Kenya’s supply gap. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo estimates that South Africa could export more than 3 million tonnes of maize during the marketing season ending in April 2027. The country had already exported nearly 1.1 million tonnes between early May and early September 2026. South Africa’s remaining exportable supply could therefore cover a substantial share of Kenya’s deficit in theory. However, regulatory restrictions complicate that prospect. A Kenyan Court of Appeal ruling in March 2025 suspended the import and commercialization of genetically modified products pending the examination of an appeal. The ruling creates a major obstacle for South African maize exporters because about 85% of the country’s maize is genetically modified. South African suppliers can still export non-GMO maize, but they must verify its origin at every stage of the supply chain and meet Kenya’s import requirements. These conditions could complicate South Africa’s efforts to supply Kenya as Nairobi considers importing nearly 3 million tonnes of maize. Tariffs create another disadvantage. Kenya imposes a 50% tariff on South African maize because South Africa belongs neither to the East African Community (EAC) nor the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Kenya’s traditional suppliers, particularly Tanzania and Zambia, could benefit from these restrictions. Tanzania belongs to the EAC, while Zambia belongs to COMESA, giving their maize duty-free access under the relevant regional trade arrangements. Both countries also produce white maize without genetically modified varieties. Until Kenya changes its legal framework, South Africa will likely continue to prioritize regional markets, including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique. Espoir Olodo