UK business growth expectations hit weakest level of 2026

UK business growth expectations have fallen to their weakest level this year, as retailers, manufacturers and services firms brace for another difficult quarter. The Confederation of British Industry’s latest growth indicator found that companies expect private sector activity to decline further over the next three months. Its gauge of expected output volumes fell to -28 in June, down from -24 in May, marking the lowest reading since December 2025. The survey, which covered 848 companies between 26 May and 12 June, pointed to weakening sentiment across manufacturing, retail and services. The CBI said output volumes in the services sector had fallen “significantly”, with both consumer-facing and business services firms under pressure. The reading adds to a run of downbeat economic data, after last week’s S&P Global business surveys showed the steepest downturn in the services sector since January 2023. The CBI’s gauge of activity over the past three months also weakened, falling to -34 in June from -31 in May, the lowest level since March. The findings come as retailers continue to face weak consumer confidence, rising employment costs and pressure on margins. The CBI recently cut its UK growth forecasts, warning that higher energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty and weak demand were weighing on both businesses and households. However, separate data from jobs site Adzuna offered a small sign of resilience in the labour market, with job vacancies rising for a fourth consecutive month. Advertised salaries fell 0.2 per cent month on month, but remained 3.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.