Why South Africa Can’t Abandon Its Middle East Agricultural Market Despite Regional Conflict

As the conflict in the Middle East persists, there are clear risks to energy, gas and fertiliser supplies and this has been a major focus in recent weeks. However, the conflict may also cause disruptions to exports of various products to the region. By Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) For South Africa’s agriculture, the region is a key export market, accounting for an average of 8% of agricultural exports by value over the past five years. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the world market were at a record US$15.1 billion in 2025, up 10% from a year ago. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar are some of South Africa’s key agricultural export markets in the region. From a product-specific perspective, citrus, apples and pears, beef, strawberries, goat and sheep meat, grapes, apricots, cherries, peaches, various nuts, and maize are some of the key agricultural products South Africa exports to this region. Current Crisis Impact and Rising Costs South Africa’s agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of the overall agricultural exports, are at risk due to this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether there are other markets that can absorb their products. Also read: AGOA extension offers little relief for SA’s citrus exports South Africa’s citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, trade interruptions will persist. Thus, it is important to explore whether countries such as China, India, Singapore and other Asian markets can increase their share of agricultural product imports from South Africa. This also involves assessing whether the EU can increase its typical share of agricultural product imports from South Africa, along with the United Kingdom. Cape Town harbour. Picture for illustrative purposes: Talitha Janse van Vuuren US Market Opportunities Fortunately for the citrus industry, South Africa also now has relatively better tariff levels for exports to the United States. The tariff rate is 10%, and for some products, such as nuts, oranges and juices, there are no duties. Still, while the conflict will impose major costs to businesses, South Africa must remain focused on its long-term agricultural export growth strategy, which has the Middle East as a key target market. In times of peace and reconstruction, this region would be a key agricultural export market. Current Market Share Analysis We believe there remains room to increase exports in peacetime. At the moment, South Africa plays a peripheral role in the region’s agricultural markets. For example, Saudi Arabia imports, on average, around US$29 billion of agricultural products a year. South Africa is one of the smallest exporters, accounting for a mere 1% of Saudi Arabian imports and ranking 31st on the agricultural imports list. Also read: Vision 260 Strategy: Citrus exports deliver on growth promise Moreover, the UAE is a large agricultural market and typically imports around US$23 billion of agricultural products. South Africa has about a 2% share and is the 16th-largest supplier. Qatar imports US$4 billion of agricultural products. But here, South Africa also plays a small role, ranking 10th among suppliers to Qatar and holding a 2% market share in Qatar’s agricultural imports. Regional Competition and Product Demand The countries with the largest market share in these Middle Eastern countries are India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Denmark, amongst others. Regarding products, the Middle East primarily imports meat products, grains, oilseeds and fruits, among others. Also read: ‘Inland port’ will revolutionise agricultural exports through Durban Harbour Given that South Africa has some of these products in surplus, the country could benefit from increasing its market share if there is targeted promotion and marketing, along with government support to nudge Middle Eastern countries to address any remaining phytosanitary barriers to South African products in those countries. The current conflict must not shift South Africa’s established view that this region is key to expanding agricultural exports. Also read: SA canned fruit and veg industry at Anuga to grow exports