Africa's low-key high-stakes Strait of Hormuz diplomacy

One of the principal arteries of world trade has been chronically blocked for almost six months. Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a bare minimum since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February. Cargo ships have at times been fired on by Iranian forces; at others, threats from Tehran or Washington have brought shipping to a standstill. So far, rounds of talks, a joint memorandum, and third-party deliberations about a maritime mission have not succeeded in stabilizing the situation. A potential deal between Iran and Oman on establishing a shipping route through the strait remains uncertain. The war has driven fossil fuel prices skyward globally, causing inflation. Despite its proximity to the Gulf region, parts of Africa face serious fuel shortages, affecting agricultural harvests due to disrupted fertilizer supplies. African governments are urged to engage diplomatically in finding a permanent solution. Liesl Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group notes that long-term plans may still assume the crisis in the Middle East will persist. The US and Iran signed a memorandum in June, but no optimism or revised economic planning has emerged. African diplomacy has been cautious, avoiding blame—particularly toward US President Donald Trump, who initiated the conflict. African leaders fear backlash for criticizing Trump, with many countries, including the UN Security Council members (DRC, Somalia, Liberia), supporting a March resolution condemning Iranian attacks on Gulf states. The African Union’s hesitation in speaking out on foreign affairs, following past criticism of Russia during the Ukraine war, has limited its influence. Governments must address supply chain disruptions by reevaluating trade routes. Kenya has successfully adapted its supply chains, while Ethiopia faced severe fuel shortages, prioritizing security and agriculture. Ethiopia’s reliance on Gulf trade partners is now at risk. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, now a major global player, has positioned the country as a fuel supplier amid the crisis. The Hormuz crisis also highlights the need for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce reliance on external trade barriers. Experts argue that African countries must trade more within the continent to mitigate global disruptions.