ANALYSIS: Should he stay or should he go? The case for Paul Seixas staying at Decathlon or joining Tadej Pogacar at UAE

Paul Seixas stood alone at the finish of Il Lombardia on Saturday. Where he stands in relation to Tadej Pogacar over the coming years could prove a much harder question: leading Decathlon’s challenge against him, or wearing the same UAE jersey. A first Monument victory at 20 follows fourth place on his Tour de France debut. Decathlon are strengthening the team around a rider they believe can win yellow, while UAE have openly expressed interest in bringing him alongside the five-time Tour champion. Seixas has committed to Decathlon through 2027. Beyond that lies a choice with considerable rewards and compromises on either side: continue leading a team still building towards Tour victory, or join one already winning it, where Pogacar is contracted through 2032 and Isaac del Toro has ambitions of his own. Paul Seixas in action at Il Lombardia 2026 Decathlon have already helped him get this far There is a persuasive case for leaving Seixas exactly where he is. In two seasons, he has gone from junior world time-trial champion to Tour contender and Monument winner, without any obvious sign that his current surroundings are holding him back. Decathlon have given him room to explore more than a future in general classification. His Itzulia Basque Country title, Fleche Wallonne victory and second places at Strade Bianche and Liege-Bastogne-Liege preceded his Tour debut. An elite world time-trial bronze and Lombardia victory followed it. He has been able to pursue results throughout the season while learning what three weeks at the Tour require. That progress has come with coaches, staff and teammates who know him. Leaving would mean rebuilding at least some of those relationships, just as he is beginning to understand how far they can take him. And the team around him is changing. CMA CGM joined on an initial five-year agreement from 2026, with Tour victory among its stated ambitions, while Decathlon have taken ownership of the organisation. Staying would tie Seixas to a project with considerably greater resources and expectations than the old AG2R team. The recruitment offers a more tangible reason for confidence than statements of ambition. L’Equipe and Cyclingnews have reported that Pavel Sivakov, Ben O’Connor and Laurens De Plus are arriving for 2027, adding experienced climbing support from some of the peloton’s strongest teams. Seixas could have more teammates alongside him deeper into mountain stages, with less responsibility falling on the same few riders day after day. Sivakov would also bring experience of working with Pogacar to a team preparing to challenge him. Felix Gall’s departure for Lidl-Trek is a substantial loss to the wider squad. It does not, however, remove Seixas’ existing Tour lieutenant: according to L’Equipe, the pair did not race together at all in 2026. The reported arrivals are being recruited to work much more closely with the Frenchman. How much stronger can Decathlon become? For all that investment, there is still a considerable gap to close. Seixas finished his first Tour 11 minutes and 56 seconds behind Pogacar, an exceptional debut at 19 that also left plenty of work ahead. Some of that work belongs to Seixas himself. Better teammates can protect him and save his energy, but they cannot supply the climbing performance required to follow Pogacar when the final attacks come. His own improvement will remain the largest unknown whichever jersey he wears. Decathlon would have to keep pace with it. A stronger mountain squad should help, although Tour challenges can unravel well before the final climb through poor positioning, crosswinds, crashes or illness. New recruits bring experience of those situations; getting the best out of them together takes time. There are also ambitions elsewhere in the team. Olav Kooij represents another substantial investment, and Decathlon explicitly included a Tour green-jersey target in their 2026 plans. Taking a sprinter need not compromise Seixas. An early stage victory can ease the pressure on the entire squad, particularly when its young leader is riding his first Tour. As his ambitions grow, though, the selection decisions could become harder. There are only eight places, and a rider trying to beat Pogacar may want as many of them as possible devoted to that task. Seixas would also carry much of the responsibility for Decathlon’s expanding project. Being the leader gives him influence over its direction, but the attention surrounding a French Tour contender on a French team would follow him through setbacks as readily as victories. Familiar surroundings would offer some protection; the expectations outside them would be harder to control. A place alongside Pogacar At UAE, Seixas would join a team already accustomed to the demands of winning the Tour. Pogacar’s five victories have been supported by an organisation that repeatedly arrives in July with the riders and preparation to deliver. Working inside that team would give Seixas daily access to its experience, from race planning to the adjustments made when a campaign begins to go wrong. He would also see Pogacar’s preparation and decision-making at close quarters, rather than encountering the results of them on the road. There is no basis for assuming UAE have a training solution that Decathlon cannot provide. Seixas is already developing at an extraordinary rate. But joining a team that has repeatedly achieved his biggest ambition would be an understandable temptation. Nor does Pogacar’s presence automatically condemn a young teammate to years of anonymity. Isaac del Toro finished third in this year’s Tour, won a stage and claimed the white jersey while helping the Slovenian to overall victory. The Mexican has pursued major results elsewhere, too. His progress gives Seixas a recent example of what is possible within UAE’s hierarchy, rather than a vague promise that his opportunities would eventually come. Sharing a team with Pogacar could even relieve some of the pressure Seixas faces. He would remain a major signing with considerable expectations, but UAE would not need him to justify its entire Tour campaign from the moment he arrived. Del Toro’s podium nevertheless came with an accepted order: Pogacar was the leader. Whether Seixas would be comfortable with a similar arrangement would depend heavily on how close he believed he was to winning the race himself. How long would Seixas be prepared to wait? Pogacar extended his UAE contract through 2032 in September. Seixas would therefore be joining a team with a long-term commitment to its existing champion, rather than arriving at an obvious moment of succession. He would turn 22 during the 2028 season and 26 in 2032. Over those years, an opportunity to learn alongside Pogacar could become a desire to challenge him with full support of his own. Nobody can know how long Pogacar will retain his current position. His contract does not guarantee an unchanged hierarchy through 2032, although there is little reason to build a career decision around the expectation that he will soon step aside. A Giro or Vuelta leadership role might appeal to Seixas in the meantime. UAE have enough opportunities across a season to accommodate several leading riders, and contesting another Grand Tour could help him prepare for a future Tour challenge. It would be a less comfortable compromise if he already felt ready to win in July. Del Toro would have a say in that future as well. Contracted through 2031, he has established himself within UAE and already finished ahead of Seixas at the Tour. There would be more than one young rider looking towards the years beyond Pogacar. The awkward conversation could come after a successful move. Seixas might improve, win major races and settle into the team, only to reach the point where his next ambition required a role that was still occupied. Tadej Pogacar and Paul Seixas at the 2026 Liêge-Bastogne-Liège Different experiences within the same team Juan Ayuso ultimately sought the next stage of his career elsewhere. His UAE contract ended early in 2025 after disagreements over development plans and sporting philosophy, before he joined Lidl-Trek. His departure does not tell us how Seixas would fare. Ayuso had his own expectations and relationship with management, and had already experienced leadership opportunities at UAE. Even so, his exit belongs in the discussion alongside Del Toro’s rise. Both developed within a team rich in talent and resources. One has committed his future to it; the other decided his ambitions were better served by leaving. For Seixas, the conversations before any move would need to cover more than which races he could lead in his first season. How would UAE respond if his performances began to challenge the existing order? Would Tour leadership remain available on sporting merit, and how would competing ambitions be managed? Decathlon face a different test. They can offer him a central role, but must continue assembling the support that makes it worth keeping. Consideration Staying at Decathlon Joining UAE Tour leadership Clear position as the main GC prospect, alongside the team’s sprint ambitions Pogacar remains the established leader, with Del Toro also a major contender Development Continuity in an environment where he has progressed rapidly Access to a team with repeated Tour-winning experience Mountain support Reported recruitment of Sivakov, O’Connor and De Plus Established depth, although support would depend on his assigned role Freedom to target races Strong influence as the rider the team is building around Opportunities across the calendar, subject to other leaders’ programmes Pressure Central responsibility for an ambitious French project More shared attention, but greater competition for leadership Long-term uncertainty Whether the team can match his sporting progress When he could receive full backing for his own Tour challenge Another season before the next commitment Remaining for 2027 gives Seixas time to see how Decathlon’s plans work on the road. He can assess the new support, return to the Tour with experience and discover how much closer he can move to its leading riders. The team have that same season to strengthen their argument for a longer stay. Promises about his future will carry more weight if he can feel the difference in the races he most wants to win. UAE’s appeal will also depend on what happens next. Pogacar’s ambitions, Del Toro’s progress and the opportunities available to another leader will all develop while Seixas is still racing in Decathlon colours. He has reached fourth at the Tour with his current team. Another step forward could make staying increasingly attractive, particularly if stronger support accompanies it. It could also make a move more complicated: the closer Seixas gets to winning, the more leadership he would be giving up by joining Pogacar. By the end of 2027, he may still be looking for the best place to prepare for a Tour challenge. He may instead be looking for seven riders to help him win the next one. Subscribe to our Newsletter After you click “Subscribe,” you’ll receive an email from us right away. In some cases, it may end up in your spam folder, so be sure to check there as well to confirm. Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders. His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava. In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available. See author's posts