Andy Burnham likes to be liked. There could hardly be a worse qualification for the job

With the appointment of Andy Burnham as prime minister, the United Kingdom has again turned left despite knowing it needs to turn right. This paradox was clearer in 2024 when Keir Starmer’s Labour government was elected to tackle economic stagnation, a struggling health service and immigration – the top three concerns for voters, opinion polls have shown. Although Labour is more trusted on health, the British electorate invariably looks to the Conservatives on the economy and immigration. Voters did not feel they could do this after 14 years of chaotic Tory rule, so in a mix of hope and resignation they turned to Labour instead. Starmer lured them in with promises of fiscal probity and tighter borders – policies deeply at odds with Labour’s convictions. As the party inevitably failed to deliver, it plunged in the polls and in council elections until it ousted its leader. The epitaph on Starmer’s government was unwittingly written by Pat McFadden, the minister for social security, in an infamous WhatsApp message. “Every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others’,” he complained of his cabinet colleagues. Burnham has been elevated through a coup by the Labour centre-left, which expects him to fix the same problems it stopped Starmer from fixing. Is his government equally doomed? There are some positive omens. McFadden has been kept in post, as has Stephen Timmins, the minister for disability benefits, who is finishing a major review. John Healey, a veteran centrist, has unexpectedly been made chancellor of the exchequer. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood has also kept her job and can press ahead with immigration reforms the left wants to block. Starmer campaigned for the Labour leadership in 2020 by appealing to the left then moving swiftly right. Burnham could do the same and make a better job of it. But his cabinet choices have already upset the party. The left is disappointed, while others feel Starmer’s team was too ruthlessly purged to make way for “Andy’s mates”. Getting welfare spending under control is the essential test of Burnham’s government. At 10 per cent of GDP it is still within historic norms but this is projected to balloon remorselessly due to pensions for an ageing population and the UK’s unusually generous disability benefits. The economy cannot grow without welfare cuts playing a role. The cost is more than financial. Putting needless numbers of people, young people especially, on to disability benefits is a social catastrophe. Pension spending fosters the sense of intergenerational injustice. Entitlement to benefits for immigrants and refugees stokes racial tensions and undermines support for universal public services. Everything is connected to a benefits splurge that Labour is fundamentally incapable of reversing. To be fair, it is not alone. State pension costs are out of control due to the UK’s “triple lock”, which effectively guarantees inflation-beating payments. This was a Conservative policy introduced in 2010. Burnham, the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage’s Reform have all said they will not repeal it. The UK’s 13 million pensioners are too powerful a voting bloc. When Conservative prime minister Theresa May attempted to end the triple lock in 2017 she almost lost a general election and was only able to stay in power with the support of the DUP, which demanded she keep the triple lock. History may accord the tiny unionist party an outsize role in destroying the British economy. The Timmins report on disability benefits is expected in the autumn. An interim version published this month recommended a “radical” overhaul of the system, with a new assessment process and replacing some cash payments with health services. But this has been heard before, from Labour and Conservative figures. Burnham may heed the report; much is being made of him keeping Timmins on. It is far likelier he is simply kicking the can further down the road. There are 7 million disability claimants in the UK – another enormous voting bloc, and one Labour sees as its own. Starmer surrendered to a revolt from the Labour left when he tried to reform disability benefits and Burnham will face the same challenge. The new prime minister has said he wants a “complete rethink” on welfare and to bring costs down, but so far his only specific proposals are on unemployment-related benefits, a minor part of the budget. Burnham wants these devolved to regions and cities so they can create tailored programmes to help people into work. That could get costs down, although a cynic might note it would also get responsibility off his desk. Perhaps the most ominous portent about Burnham, reported by numerous people who have worked with him, is that he likes to be liked. There could scarcely be a worse qualification to lead the UK in its present condition.