ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is Stressed – dropping 11 points to 80.3 in April

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell another 11 points from 91.3 in March to 80.3 in April, the lowest read in about three years. The index has fallen 20 points in the past two months since the Middle East conflict began. The net proportion of households thinking it’s a 'good time to buy' a major household item (the best retail indicator) fell 11 points to -25, the lowest since September 2024. Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) jumped nearly another full percentage point to 6.6%. The future conditions index fell from 96.7 to 85.9, the lowest in two years. The current conditions index fell from 83.1 to 71.9, the lowest since October 2023. Net perceptions of current personal financial situations (better or worse off than last year) fell 11 points from -20% to -31%, with only 20% saying they are 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to 51% who say they are 'worse off', the weakest figure since mid-2008. Looking forward, a net 3% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, down 7 points from a month ago. A net 25% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, with only 27% saying it is a 'good time to buy', while a rising majority of 52% say it is a 'bad time to buy', the weakest read since September 2024. Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell another 23 points to -48%, the lowest in three years. The 5-year-ahead measure fell 2 points to +3%. House price inflation expectations fell from 3.8% to 3.2%. Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations jumped 0.9 percentage points to 6.6%. Petrol prices are up about 30% year-over-year, and food price inflation has been running at 4-5% year-over-year. The sharp drop in consumer confidence is attributed to the oil price shock and broader economic concerns affecting job security.