Charting the Global Economy: IMF trims world growth projections

The International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecast for 2026 as the oil-price shock from war in the Middle East rippled across economies worldwide. The global lender sees the world economy expanding 3.1%, down from a January forecast of 3.3%, according to its World Economic Outlook. The IMF also raised its inflation estimate, reflecting higher energy and food prices. Economic data out this week showed economic growth in China quickened in the first quarter. Meanwhile, US wholesale inflation in March was softer than expected and the UK economy expanded in February by the most in two years. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy , markets and geopolitics: World Bloomberg The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth projection for the year after the war in the Middle East triggered a major oil shock and included the possibility of a downturn if the conflict drags on and energy infrastructure is severely damaged. US Bloomberg Wholesale prices rose by less than expected in March, despite a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war. The producer price index rose 0.5%, while an underlying gauge that excludes food and energy rose just 0.1%. Bloomberg Exports of US oil, including crude and refined products, surged to a record as the war in Iran sent buyers hunting for alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies. Most of the gains came as crude shipments jumped above the key mark of 5 million barrels a day, reaching the highest since September 2025, according to government data. Bloomberg Stellantis NV’s global shipments jumped 12% in the first quarter, led by a surge in North American deliveries of refreshed Jeep and Ram models. North American shipments to dealers and distributors, or directly to retail and fleet customers, rose 17% to 379,000 vehicles. Bloomberg The surge in gasoline prices is causing more economic pain in some cities than others and it’s not necessarily in the places where they have risen the most, like Chicago or Los Angeles. Instead, it’s in smaller, more spread-out cities, like Nashville or Indianapolis, according to an analysis of local gas prices through April 9 from data aggregator GasBuddy and figures on driver mileage from the Federal Highway Administration. Europe Bloomberg The UK economy was expanding quickly in the weeks leading up to the outbreak of war in Iran, revealing the extent to which conflict in the Middle East has changed British fortunes. Gross domestic product grew 0.5% in February. Britain’s powerhouse services sector boosted activity, growing for a fourth straight month. Production and construction also expanded. Bloomberg The European Central Bank will raise interest rates in June as the Iran war drives inflation higher this year, a Bloomberg survey showed. The quarter-point increase is likely to be the only such move, however, as the conflict won’t cause a long-lasting price shock. Bloomberg The value of Norway’s crude exports surged to a record last month due to the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, helping to raise the country’s trade surplus to the highest level in more than three years. Asia Bloomberg China’s economic growth rebounded more than expected in the first quarter, powered by strong manufacturing and exports. At the same time, the figures showed few signs of a turnaround in weak consumer spending. Bloomberg South Korea’s import prices posted their biggest surge in nearly three decades, underscoring the scale of cost pressures rippling through the economy as the Iran war spurs a spike in oil and weighs on the won. Bloomberg Taiwan overtook the UK in stock market value as the island’s tech firms regained favor amid hopes for further de-escalation in the Iran war. Taiwan’s market capitalization rose to $4.14 trillion as of Wednesday, making it the world’s seventh largest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg showing the combined value of companies with a primary listing on the island. The UK’s market was valued at around $4.09 trillion. Africa Bloomberg The Democratic Republic of Congo is poised to overtake Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy this year, the IMF said, buoyed by a mining boom and a strengthening currency. South Africa will retain top spot followed by Nigeria, Angola and Kenya.