How Stefanovic’s epic miscalculation crossed a line for Nine

At age 51, Karl Stefanovic was late to enter media entrepreneurship. Now in the back nine holes of his career, his decision to cash in on the brand built on 20 years as the Nine Network’s morning show host to launch an independent podcasting venture, was a gamble. In theory Nine was probably OK with Stefanovic spreading his wings and amortising his brand across multiple platforms for self-enrichment. Karl Stefanovic and Tommy Robinson chat during the now-deleted podcast episode. Karl Stefanovic Show But when Karl the podcaster’s persona - the one that happily snuggled up with extreme right-wing British activist Tommy Robinson - clashed with his persona as a breakfast television host watched by millions in middle Australia, an outcome involving tears was a no-brainer. Stefanovic’s miscalculation is one for the books. It was a big swing or as one called it a “stumbling overreach.” The Nine morning show audience was incensed - feeling that their cuddly Karl had deceived them. And remember Morning Show Karl was being paid around $3 million a year to remain loyal and popular to his early rising audience and the advertisers that were targeting those (mainly) mums with breakfast cereal commercials and laundry detergent advertisements. Unfortunately for Stefanovic, he had to pick just one lane rather than attempt to straddle both. If his ultimate wealth is the measure, then he probably picked the wrong lane. Australia’s market for podcasts is pretty small. To be fair Stevanovic has astutely picked the direction of media monetisation - the fragmentation of audiences and the rise of the podcast. The podcasts that receive traffic and traction are those pushing the populist credentials - pushing back on the status quo and the politics of grievance, which is a generally a combo platter of anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-feminist and strongly anti-woke. In larger markets like the US or the US, there is a good living to be made by the likes of Joe Rogan but the same can’t necessarily be said for a market the size of Australia. There is a limit to the number of people able to subscribe to Karl Stefanovic and Kyle Sandilands and the latter offers a more raw red meat. Stefanovic understands the changing media landscape - and that the $2 to $3 million Nine has previously paid him now is not future-proofed. As the decline of free to air viewership continues over time, its big stars understand that the ability to pay the mega-salaries is being increasingly challenged. Stefanovic’s replacement will not be as generously treated. Stefanovic’s interview with Robinson clearly crossed a line for Nine, which was not prepared to upset its revenue lifeblood of advertisers. Wednesday hosted a series of Nine crisis talks after the network became incensed by the way Stefanovic embraced Robinson during the video. By Wednesday afternoon Nine was knee-deep in working on the terms of Stefanovic’s departure. Earlier in the day the Robinson interview mysteriously vanished from key online platforms as crisis mode was in full swing at Nine as it workshopped how to engineer the divorce from its 20-year morning veteran. Having highly paid old-media celebrities shoot themselves in the foot can be serendipitous for the likes of Nine or radio network ARN which was paying Kyle Sandilands and Jackie Henderson a combined $200 million over ten years. ARN seized on the brawl between its two radio stars to tear up the expensive contract they had agreed to only a few years earlier. There has been a lot of angst from Nine about Stefanovic’s creation of a culture war thanks to his interview with Robinson. But it also presents the free-to-air network with the opportunity to ratchet down some cost. So maybe it isn’t seen as all bad.