Live: ASX drops despite record Wall Street high

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) expects Australian inflation to surge to 6 per cent, while adding another RBA interest rate hike to its forecast. The bank said it was principally due to the direct impact of higher fuel prices but also a wide range of spill overs. AMP is also warning that despite the market's stellar performance over the past couple of weeks, it remains at risk of another pullback of as much as 15 per cent. Disclaimer: This blog is not intended as investment advice. Key Events 4 hours ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:45am 5 hours ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 4:38am 6 hours ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 3:30am Pinned 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:19am Market snapshot By David Taylor S&P/ASX 200: -0.2% to 8,935 points Australian dollar: 0.1% at 71.7 US cents Dow Jones: +0.2% to 48,578 points S&P 500: +0.3% to 7,041 points Nasdaq: +0.4% to 24,102 points FTSE: +0.2% to 10,589 points EuroStoxx: -0.1% to 616 points Spot gold: +0.3% to $US4,802/ounce Brent crude: -1.3% to $US98.10/barrel Iron ore: +0.4% to $US106.75/tonne Bitcoin: -0.7% to $US74,619 Prices current around 3:30pm AEST. Live updates on the major ASX indices: Collapse all posts Filter Posts All 50 Key Events 7 Market snapshot 3 Economy 4 2h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 7:05am That's a wrap from us By David Taylor Thank you for joining us today on the ABC business blog. It's been terrific having your company. Let's see what the weekend brings. Next week the ACCC takes on Woolworths in the Federal Court over the supermarket's 'Prices Dropped' program. We'll stay across it for you. Have a nice weekend. 3h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 6:50am The week ahead on the economic calendar By David Taylor Business conditions PMIs for April to be released Thursday for developed countries including Australia are likely to show further signs of stagflation, with another slump in conditions and confidence and a further rise in cost and price pressures reflecting the impact of the supply shock flowing from the war. In the US, expect a solid 1.2% rise in March retail sales (Tuesday) due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying retail sales growth to be soft. The US March quarter profit reporting season will continue. Consensus expectations are for 14%yoy earnings growth, but this is likely to end up around 18%yoy, which will be the strongest in four years. Canadian inflation for March (Monday) is likely to spike 1.1%mom to 2.6%yoy, but with the core inflation measures remaining around 2.3%yoy. UK inflation for March (Wednesday) is likely to spike for the same reasons to around 3.8%yoy from 3%yoy, but again with core inflation remaining around 3.2% for now. It will likely be similar in New Zealand (Tuesday) with March quarter CPI inflation likely to rise 0.9%qoq, but falling to 2.9%yoy. Japanese inflation for March (Friday) is likely to rise to around 1.5%yoy , with core inflation around the same level. With AMP. 3h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 6:38am S&P/ASX 200 closes the trading day flat By Lin Lin The S&P/ASX 200 closed down just 8.10 points today to 8,946.90. Over the last five days, the index is virtually unchanged, but is currently 2.8% below its 52-week high. Consumer cyclicals and healthcare were the worst performers. (LSEG) The bottom performing stocks in this index were Temple & Webster Group and Whitehaven Coal, down 6.46% and 5.02% respectively. While Zip shares soared today to be the top performer and ended the trading day 13.66% higher after it upgraded its full-year earning guidance slightly. Zip shares surge after it upgraded its full-year earning guidance slightly. (LSEG ) 3h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 6:15am Allbirds' AI Whiplash By Lin Lin Here's one to end your trading week: US firm Allbirds' sudden switch from selling wool sneakers to building AI infrastructure has sent its shares on a wild ride in the space of 24 hours. After a 580% surge on Thursday, the stock slid more than 30% overnight, raising questions about whether this was innovation or just peak AI hype. Watch this space. 3h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 6:00am Cigno and BSF fined $7m for breaking consumer credit rules By Lin Lin Two lending businesses, Cigno Australia and BSF Solutions, and their respective directors have been fined a combined $7 million after the Federal Court found they broke Australia's consumer credit laws. The court determined the companies were essentially running loans without the proper licence and charging customers fees that weren't allowed. Regulators say the loan model was designed to get around rules that are meant to protect people from being overcharged, leaving borrowers worse off. ASIC says the firms collected more than $90 million in fees in less than two years, and the fines are meant to send a strong warning to anyone engaging in unfair or predatory lending. 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:51am Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed By David Taylor It's worth noting that despite everything that has been said and done during the Iran war, the waterway at the centre of this conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, remains effectively closed to most marine traffic. Here's a snapshot of the straight this afternoon AEST. Strait of Hormuz April 17, 2026 Key Event 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:45am 'High risk that the war could re-escalate again': AMP By David Taylor Here are some more musings from the desk of AMP chief economist Shane Oliver: · There is still a high risk that the war could re-escalate again – with the US expanding its bombing and Iran retaliating by hitting more ships in the Strait of Hormuz and getting the Houthis to do the same in the Red Sea. · The flow of ships through the strait while up from its lows remains a fraction of normal levels , so the hit to global oil supply continues. · A bout of stagflation – higher inflation and weaker growth - is already baked in in the near term as even if there is a quick and sustained increase in ships flowing through the strait, it will take several months for global oil and related product flows to return to normal. · The global economy is now getting closer to crunch time regarding the supply of oil — as the last ship load of oil to leave the Gulf before the war started is now getting refined into fuel, and the longer the hit to oil supply continues, the greater the risk of the global economy moving beyond a short term bout of stagflation into a recession along the lines flagged by the IMF. 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:27am ASIC: former Beacon Minerals project manager Alexander McCulloch pleads guilty to insider trading By Lin Lin Former Beacon Minerals project manager Alexander McCulloch has pleaded guilty to a single rolled‐up count of insider trading, covering two trades, with another count discontinued. Prosecutors said that in January 2017, while managing the gold exploration drilling program at Beacon's Jaurdi Gold Project, McCulloch used inside information to procure two associates to buy a combined 11 million shares in the company. He had previously pleaded not guilty, and the matter was initially scheduled for trial later this year. McCulloch will now face sentencing on September 23. The case is being prosecuted by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions following a referral from ASIC. 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:15am That's Business podcast: Danielle Wood on Australia's productivity problem By Lin Lin Check out this week's That's Business with Alan Kohler . He sits down with Danielle Wood, chair of the Productivity Commission , to talk about Australia's productivity problem. It's a conversation about why Australia feels stuck, what it would take to change course, and whether anyone in politics is really prepared to do it. You can listen here . 4h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 5:05am Jet fuel shortage could see major flight disruptions in Europe, price hikes and cancellations globally By Lin Lin Europe may face significant flight disruptions within weeks, after global energy officials warned the region could have as little as six weeks' worth of jet fuel remaining — a shortage that could drive up fares and trigger cancellations affecting Australian travellers. Read more here from the ABC's Kristy Sexton-McGrath. 5h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 4:53am Australian stocks lower as markets await Iran update By Lin Lin The S&P/ASX 200 index has trimmed losses during trading, down 0.2% to 8,934 as of 2.40pm AEST, on track for a weekly loss. Consumer and financial stocks are the major drags on the benchmark index, while the technology sector is leading the gains. Technology stocks gain, consumer and financial sectors are the worst performing. (LSEG) Shares in digital payments company Zip Co have surged by more than 14%. Financial results for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year show upgraded guidance, with cash earnings (before tax, depreciation and amortisation) at $65.1 million, up 41% from the same period a year earlier. Zip shares surged after it upgraded its full-year earnings guidance. (LSEG) Markets are watching closely for the possibility of further talks after US President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran was "going along swimmingly". Any easing of tensions or a more durable agreement could allow shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz to resume more freely, improving oil supply and easing pressure on global growth after crude prices jumped when the conflict erupted in late February. Key Event 5h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 4:38am Oil spike risk, share market dive remains 'high' By David Taylor Here's AMP's Shane Oliver's latest thoughts on oil and the share market. So the risk of a renewed spike in oil prices and more volatility in shares remains high . Historically, the pattern of weakness in midterm election years in the US, which on average has seen a 17% top to bottom fall in shares, starts around now and runs out to around October. Any renewed weakness in US shares would affect the Australian share market. As such, it remains a time for those with a short-term investment horizon to remain cautious. 5h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 4:15am ICYMI: Consumers are cutting back on spending amid higher risk of global recession By Lin Lin As the IMF warned earlier this week, Australia and the global economy are facing growing recession risks as the war in the Middle East pushes up oil prices and fuels inflation fears. ABC's Nassim Khadem has more here. 5h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 4:00am 'Increasing concerns' about economic outlook By David Taylor LGT Wealth Management chief investment officer, Scott Haslem, has posted this economic note on social media. Australia’s jobs report for March, released yesterday, reinforced the view that the labour market was in good health before the onset of the Iran war. Unemployment remained low at 4.3%, hours worked continued to accelerate and pre-war job vacancies rose in February. While some have argued early impacts of the war will be in the data (with the survey taken in the first half of March), that seems a long bow. The strength in the jobs market will nonetheless prove a bit of a buffer to the recent energy (and interest rate) shock. How much of a buffer, time will tell. This week also saw business and consumer confidence plunge to levels only seen during the GFC and the pandemic. Consumer spending is already slowing quickly (not helped by rising unemployment expectations), especially as the price of ‘unfun’ things like petrol and utilities rise sharply, limiting spending elsewhere. We recently moved underweight Aussie equities to reflect a more challenged set-up for growth than other regions (where we continue to maintain our modest global equity overweight). While most of the world is dealing with high energy costs, our economy is also dealing with rising rates (and energy supply shortages in rural areas). With another hike from the RBA likely in May, and a May Federal budget seemingly unable to self-reflect and contain rampant government spending, there are increasing concerns about Australia’s near-term (and medium term) growth outlook. There’s a reasonable chance growth will pivot much weaker than expected in H226, and the RBA will be forced to pivot too. Aussie fixed income yielding 5-6% might turn out to be a relatively attractive asset class in the not-too-distant future. 6h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 3:45am Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings to step down By Lin Lin Reed Hastings is stepping down as chairman of Netflix, the streaming giant he co‐founded nearly three decades ago. In a letter to investors, the company said Hastings would not stand for re‐election at its annual meeting in June as he shifted his focus to philanthropy and other interests. His exit comes at a challenging time for Netflix, which is facing slowing growth, intense competition and the collapse of a potential deal with Warner Bros Discovery earlier this year. The company’s shares fell about 9% on the news. The company also reported its financial results for the first three months of the year. Revenue rose to $12.3 billion, beating analysts’ estimates due to solid subscriber growth. Key Event 6h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 3:30am Bank predicts inflation will hit 6%, adds rate hike to forecast By David Taylor The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has offices here in Australia and contributes regularly to the national economic conversation. In its latest public note, it's added another RBA interest rate hike to its monetary policy forecast. It's also predicting Australian inflation to surge. Here's an excerpt from the report: A reacceleration in headline inflation is inevitable. Automotive fuel is a significant component of the Aussie CPI basket, with a weighting of 3.35%. Under the assumption Brent prices are close to USD90 a barrel by end-26 and USD75 by end-27 (slightly above market pricing but in line with our global commodity team forecasts), we expect y/y headline CPI inflation to hit a peak of 6% in monthly terms in June and 5.6% in quarterly terms in 4Q. This is principally due to the direct impact of higher fuel prices but also a wide range of spillovers. Prices for urea and fertiliser will also feed through to food price inflation. The question is, what’s the risk of leakage? We think it’s likely that measures of core inflation will strengthen as well. According to the NAB monthly business survey, input costs surged in March by the most on record, from 1.3% to 3% in quarterly equivalent terms. Final product price growth also increased in the month, up 1.1%, a smaller but still significant magnitude. Weaker reported profitability means businesses are absorbing the higher costs by some degree. But margin pressures are intensifying. And with a shock as large as the one we are facing, the risk of pass-through is higher. At the same time, household balance sheets entered 2026 in a relatively strong state. Real disposable income per capita rose steadily in 2025 as inflation and interest rates declined. Households were also in a savings state of mind. Buffers were being rebuilt with the household saving ratio climbing to 6.9% at the end of last year – a decent recovery from the 1.9% covid lows. Unemployment holding at historically low levels has also been another key support. Given the starting point, second-round effects will be more of a challenge to contain. We expect trimmed mean inflation to climb to 4.2% by 1Q-27 with a peak of around 1.1% in q/q terms in the second half of this year. We don’t expect a return to the band until 2028. 6h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 3:18am Gold heads for fourth weekly gain By Lin Lin Gold prices are holding steady and on pace for a fourth straight weekly gain on hopes of a lasting US-Iran peace deal. The idea is that any deal struck or further de-escalation in the conflict could reduce the risk of oil-driven inflation and the need for higher interest rates. Bullion was practically flat at $US4,795 an ounce as of 1.10pm AEST, having added nearly 1% this week. Gold often does better when inflation starts to ease and investors think interest rates will come down. Lower interest rates make gold more appealing because there's less income to miss out on by holding it, since gold doesn't pay interest or dividends. The precious metal has bounced back a bit lately, but it's still almost 9% lower than where it was before the conflict began in late February. Early on, investors rushed to sell gold to get cash and make up for losses elsewhere. Key Event 6h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 3:00am RBA speaks on IMF Panel By David Taylor The Reserve Bank's chief economist, Sarah Hunter, has been sharing her thoughts on an IMF panel. The topic of discussion was: Rethinking Macro Policy Frameworks for a Transforming, Shock Prone World. I'll paraphrase that for you: how do we analyse stuff in a really unpredictable world? Here's some of what she said on the panel: "Many households now around the world, in Australia and in all countries, will be struggling with and grappling with higher fuel prices. They will be making some really hard trade-offs. And that could well, in many countries, slow growth down, put pressure on our unemployment rates and feed through into our labour market more broadly. We're certainly using scenarios more now than we have in the past. The key question for me is, what are you trying to communicate with the scenario? In a very sort of technical decision-making sense, it is a risk exercise. It's considering alternative different risks, different states of the world, and how monetary policy would respond under those different states. That's what our policy committees are having to grapple with." Key Event 7h ago Fri 17 Apr 2026 at 2:45am Oxford Economics lowers global growth forecast By David Taylor Here's an excerpt from Oxford Economics's latest international macroeconomic note: We have lowered global GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, reflecting prolonged shipping disruption and slower energy normalisation, with oil around US$113/barrel in Q2 pushing inflation higher and weighing on demand.