Monday briefing: Will the heatwave spark action, or further inflame the culture wars?

Good morning. You could be forgiven for thinking that last week’s heatwave in Europe would be a galvanising moment for action on the climate crisis. At one point, more than 150 million Europeans sweltered in temperatures above 35C (95F) – with several parts of the continent soaring past 40C. A heatwave of this magnitude has never been recorded this early in the year. When scientists finish their calculations, the death toll will probably number in the thousands. Spain, one of the few countries that produces real-time statistics on excess deaths linked to heat, has recorded more than 100 per day since Wednesday. French authorities said that at least 1,000 additional deaths had been recorded between 24 and 27 June, a figure that is likely to rise. They include four toddlers who died in incidents linked to the heat. A three-year-old boy in a Paris suburb was found dead last week after climbing into a car and becoming trapped. There is a miserable inevitability surrounding these events: scientists have long warned they were coming. Yet countries have not done enough to cut the emissions from fossil fuels that are causing the extreme weather – or adapt to the realities of managing the toll on their transport and healthcare systems. For today’s First Edition, I spoke with Ajit Niranjan , the Guardian’s Europe environment correspondent, about whether this week’s heatwave in Europe could prompt a fresh drive for action on global heating or whether it may, counterintuitively, boost support for political parties that are sceptical about the climate crisis. But first, the headlines. Weekend roundup Iran | The sudden eruption of fresh hostilities in the Gulf – just 10 days after Iran and the US signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict – threatens to put the two countries back on the path to war. Europe heatwave | Germany, Czechia, Poland and Hungary reached record temperatures of more than 40C on Sunday as a heatwave linked to hundreds of deaths in western Europe spread east. UK politics | Andy Burnham is the most popular man at Westminster right now, and Labour MPs, the unions, Whitehall civil servants, political advisers and thinktanks are all battling for the ear of the next prime minister. UK news | One pound in every £11 of UK government spending on contractors went to private equity-controlled companies last year, research shows, including key services such as transport, waste management and healthcare. Royal family | The Duke of Sussex fears his children will not meet King Charles in the coming days after their UK visit was “pulled out from under their feet at the 11th hour”. In depth: We are unprepared for the strain these weather conditions put on our services Residents and tourists alike struggled amid extreme temperatures in London last week. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA Growing up in England, 25C always felt like the threshold for a hot summer day. Sun cream and a good hat were vital, as were ice-cream and a blanket for reading in the shade away from the heat. But today, in the wake of a heatwave that pushed the UK’s record June temperature to 37.3C, normal has shifted dramatically: yesterday 25C felt cool, a welcome relief from the recent furnace. The arrival of extreme weather in Europe has been quick. It is the world’s fastest-warming continent, heating up at twice the rate of the rest of the planet. In the 1950s, 60s and 80s, there was not a single “tropical night” recorded at the London Heathrow weather station – defined as when the night-time temperature does not fall below 20C. Now, they are common: four in a row were recorded last week, according to the popular weather blogger London & Southeast. The UK and other European countries are unprepared for these conditions and the immense strain they put on health and travel networks. In the UK, hundreds of schools closed early, workplaces overheated, and train operators asked people not to travel. On Wednesday, the London ambulance service recorded its busiest ever day for the most serious category of callouts, with 642 responses to reports of cardiac arrests, patients who have stopped breathing and life-threatening injuries. Just two days later, the record was broken again , with more 999 calls made than ever before, more even than during the Covid-19 pandemic. By yesterday, the heatwave had moved east. Poland, Czechia and Slovakia were all expecting record temperatures of more than 40C. Bautzen in in eastern Saxony broke the German record for the highest overnight minimum temperature of 29.4C. For many years, climate scientists assumed that extreme weather events in richer countries would have a galvanising impact for investment in renewable energy, support for green political parties and phasing out of fossil fuels. But that logic has not played out in reality. The climate is now at the frontier of the culture wars, shaped by arguments about air conditioning or phone-ins about whether people are being “wimps” for complaining about the high temperatures . A boost for the far right Sometimes, climate-driven weather events can temporarily cut through, says Ajit, pointing to the 2021 floods in the Ahr valley in Germany, which killed 188 people and washed away entire villages. But increasingly, the opposite happens. “One trend that’s possibly the most counterintuitive about these kinds of moments is that far-right parties who are denying the science of climate change can get a bit of a boost from extreme weather events,” says Ajit. “They spin the extreme weather as a failure of government policy, arguing that focusing on climate change was part of the initial problem, and it is more about mismanagement.” In many cases, such as the 2024 floods in Valencia, when more than 230 people were killed after a year’s worth of rain fell in eight hours to parts of eastern Spain, both things are true: the climate drove the extreme weather , but poor governance contributed to the deadly outcome. This is likely to become an increasingly common dynamic as extreme weather events grow in frequency. “Both sides of this issue need to be addressed,” says Ajit. “There is this weird tendency where political parties completely deny one of the causes by either focusing just on climate or just on adaptation, without having a good plan for the other. This is certainly a part of the strategy used by far-right parties to bash climate policy,.” The great air-con debate Social media played a major role in shaping perceptions of last week’s heatwave – and driving divisions about what should be done to protect people from future extreme weather events. Some of the reaction has been lighthearted. In Paris, balconies and rooftops became so hot that people were frying eggs and steak in the sun. One man went viral for making a heatwave crepe . But much of the online debate centred on whether Europe needed a larger rollout of air conditioning to protect its population from the heat. In a post seen by nearly 20 million people, Patrick Collison, CEO of US tech firm Stripe, asked the AI model Claude to settle the air-con debate for Europeans. It concluded that the continent needed to throw its weight behind air conditioning and move past “the psychological discomfort” of “admitting that the American approach to summer was correct all along”. But many places still have some reservations about embracing air-con. In France, the centre of last weeks’ heatwave, many green progressives continue to argue against its use for ideological reasons, despite the extreme heat. The far-right National Rally in France has been quick to capitalise on this, announcing a “major” plan for AC. Ajit says that, as is often the case, there is a significant gap between the online discourse and reality when it comes to air conditioning. “Within Europe, air conditioning is nowhere near as big of a fight as some of the international press have made it out to be,” he says. “There are very few actual restrictions on putting in air conditioning units in your home. This meme in the US that we hate air-con and refuse to have it is not really true. It is less common than in rich parts of Asia and North America but, until recently, people did not need it.” Caring for those most at risk Even if there was a major success in cutting fossil fuel emissions, extreme weather events of increasing severity are guaranteed in coming years. While much of the world’s trajectory on global heating will be shaped by government policy in China, the US and India, Ajit underscores that mitigating the impact of extreme heat is something that we can all get involved in. “For people who have this feeling of futility about climate change, there is still a lot we can do,” he says. “There are obvious things like drinking water, wearing loose-fitting clothing, staying in the shade and avoiding the hotter parts of the day. But we also need to look out for vulnerable people. Older people especially cannot regulate their body temperature as well.” Many of the excess deaths happen among elderly and vulnerable people, and among those who were not necessarily close to death. Earlier this month, the World Health Organization said that nearly 200,000 people had died in Europe due to heat in the past four years, and the majority of those deaths would have been preventable if obvious adaptation measures had been taken. “The advice that a lot of charities have given is to check on your elderly neighbours, particularly those who live alone,” says Ajit. “The small things really matter. Pop over with a glass of icy water or an ice-cream. None of this will make a difference to the big picture on the climate crisis, but it is ridiculously hot, and people are dying without many of us realising.” We want to hear from you Later this week, Libby will be speaking to Andy Beckett, columnist and author of The Searchers , about why Britain goes through prime ministers quicker than Taylor Swift goes through eras and what it means for democracy. If you’ve got a question for him hit reply or email first.edition@theguardian.com The week to come Today | Andy Burnham will give his first major speech since winning the Makerfield byelection and becoming Labour leader in waiting, setting out his economic vision and plans for radical devolution. Tomorrow | The Amos review into NHS maternity services will be published. Wednesday | The review into the sentences in the Fordingbridge rape case , which shocked the country and prompted a debate about leniency towards young offenders, will be heard in the court of appeal. What else we’ve been reading Fighting on ... Erin Brockovich at her home in Los Angeles. Photograph: Jessica Pons/The Guardian Zoe Williams has spoken to the one and only Erin Brockovich about her latest environmental battle against AI datacentres – and how she plans to take the campaign global. Patrick After Zohran Mamdani -backed candidates were victorious in Democrat primaries, David Smith asks whether the US could be set for a truly leftwing president in 2028. Toby Moses, head of newsletters Mike Bell was diagnosed with Parkinson’s at the age of 53 – but eight years later, he learned the diagnosis was wrong. He has written about the experience for the Guardian’s A new start after 60 series. Patrick skip past newsletter promotion after newsletter promotion World Cup 2026 Stephen Eustáquio (right) celebrates after scoring for Canada in stoppage time at the Los Angeles Stadium. Photograph: Frederic J Brown/AFP/Getty Images On the pitch Last 32 | Canada became the first team to reach the last 16 of the World Cup with a late 1-0 victory against South Africa . They will face the winner of Netherland and Morocco in Houston on Saturday. Off the pitch England | Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham’s goals saw off Panama, but Thomas Tuchel has problems at right-back and on flanks for last-32 tie against the DRC. World Cup power rankings | After the conclusion of the group stages, the Guardian’s football writers have revisited their pre-tournament power rankings. One country has climbed 26 places – although France are still top dogs. Penalties | The knockout stages are here – along with the spectre of the dreaded penalty shootout. Agony and ecstasy are guaranteed. Nick Evershed has been looking into the stats on the best way to take them. Fans | Do not miss this beautiful photo essay of fans from all 48 countries at the World Cup during the group stages. DR Congo fan Michel Nkuka Mboladinga, also known as Lumumba Vea, deserves his spot in the main image. Icon. Today’s Fixtures Brazil v Japan, 6pm on ITV Germany v Paraguay, 9.30pm on BBC The front pages Photograph: The Guardian “Alarm raised over growing role of private equity firms”, is the Guardian ’s front page today. The Times has “Burnham: I want mayors to help cut benefits bill”, the FT says “Burnham sets out ‘10-year mission’ to raise living standards nationwide” and the i Paper goes with “Burnham vows to ‘lift Britain back up’ with biggest ever power transfer”. The Telegraph splashes “Burnham: Give me 10 years to fix Britain”, and the Mail writes “Tax raids on middle classes in Burnham’s 10-year plan”. The Express leads on “‘Maddening’ £1.25 million waste of taxpayers’ money”, The Mirror , on a charity walk by the Princess of Wales, has “My chance to give something back”, and Metro , writing about plans to revamp the Royal Navy, says “All hands off deck!”. Today in Focus Anders Fernstedt, who lives in the porch of 2-8 Rutland Gate, Kensington, London. Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian Life on the porch of an empty mansion In the heart of Knightsbridge, London, 2-8A Rutland Gate, which sold for £210m in 2020, sits empty. But Anders Fernstedt has been sleeping rough on the porch for three years, surrounded by his collection of plant pots and flowers in vases. With many people desperate for housing, what do abandoned luxury properties like this one tell us about the UK? Sam Wollaston tells Lucy Hough about the Guardian’s Abandoned Britain series and how Anders found himself living outside the mansion. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron Illustration: Ella Baron/The Guardian The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Pupils from Trewirgie school in Redruth at the Go Cornish event in Truro, Cornwall. Photograph: Jonny Weeks/The Guardian “We used to talk this way in the old days. And I like speaking now. I enjoy the songs we sing, the Cornish books we read, all the words.” Those are the words of seven-year-old Ablie, one of 200 children who attended the Go Cornish Celebration in Truro , a joyous event showcasing youngsters’ explorations of the Celtic language. Children in Cornwall are embracing Kernewek in what the council is calling a “remarkable resurgence” of the language, amid its 10-year council to boost its everyday use. Goals include making sure every child in Cornwall leaves primary school with a basic understanding of Cornish, and making sure Cornish is routinely seen and heard in civic spa