Priced out at checkout

These days the first shock of the day arrives not with the blare of a news bulletin or the crinkle of a morning newspaper, but when you arrive at the grocery-shop till. Asif Abbasi received his while paying for milk at a shop in Saddar. The kilo he bought the previous week for 220 rupees now costs 240. It is a difference of 20 rupees, the loose change in a trouser pocket that usually can’t get you much in Pakistan. But in those small increments -- 20 rupees or so per item -- the week’s grocery math no longer adds up. This is not about macroeconomics and complicated treasury reports, but this is the Pakistan of the chai stall, the vegetable cart, and the hissing LPG cylinder. Across the country, from the narrow lanes of Saddar to the double-income apartments of Gulistan-e-Johar, and the palatial homes in Lahore, a slow, grinding crisis is rewriting the terms of survival for the middle class, and for that matter any class below that, if it still exists. Fuel prices jump, and the cost of fodder follows, then the price of bread rises, and then the price of patience. If anything, this is a crisis that has a cascading impact on the lives of ordinary consumers who struggle between paychecks and juggle with rising cost of living and added inflation. A cup of tea – that great equaliser of our nation’s working class is fast becoming a luxury. The gas that lights the stove arrives in erratic fits -- thanks to the loadshedding that has forced millions to rely on overpriced portable cylinders that devour thousands in cash every few days. To live in Pakistan today is to perform a daily arithmetic of subtraction, and by all accounts most households are running the daily math of survival by cutting corners. You no longer go out with a long list of things you want, but perhaps just what you can afford. For the domestic worker whose commute eats half her wage, for the entrepreneur whose children no longer get their favourite snacks, for the salaried father who now eats industrial oil so his kids can have a single piece of fruit, the question is no longer about standards of living, it is about the terrifying requirement of just living. This is a story about milk measured out in teaspoons, about bread stretched to an extra day, and for some families, about bread eaten even as it grows stale. It is about a 1,000-rupee note that vanishes in the time it takes to say nashta, and about a middle class that is not just shrinking, but learning to do without much of what used to make the regular items on the grocery list. Yet, despite official claims that inflation is easing, the experience at the checkout counter tells a different story. We, the consumers, experience one shock after another at the climbing prices of even basic kitchen expenses. Inflation has hit hard consumers across all socioeconomic classes, urban and rural alike, with many now realising that slowly their living standards are being compromised. Putting together a meal is not only becoming expensive, it is logistically difficult, Abbasi shared. In Karachi, various areas are experiencing prolonged gas loadshedding, causing severe distress to domestic consumers. “Preparing breakfast, lunch, and dinner has become a major challenge,” the visibly irked consumer added. And he is not the only one. Irum Raheal, an online entrepreneur who resides in Karachi's Gulistan-e-Johar also feels the financial pinch each time she is out to do her groceries. “The impact is clearly felt every month,” she said. In the past, her biggest concern was having a budget large enough to provide quality education for her two young children. But now allocating expenditure for running the house is catching up when she and her husband chalk up the monthly budget. “The prices of essential items like cooking oil, milk, meat, butter, and tea continue to rise, leading to a steady increase in the total monthly grocery bill and putting growing pressure on the family budget,” she explained. This has also pushed her to do more thoughtful grocery shopping. Gone are the days when you would head straight for the brand of your family’s choice on your supermarket run. For example, 200gm of imported butter was priced at less than 500 rupees just a couple years back. It is now for a little over 800 rupees and that is a considerable increase– enough to rethink and switch it out for a butter brand that can last longer in the fridge for the same price. With the latest price surge this year, Irum has tweaked her shopping cart items. “I have completely stopped buying imported products that are out of my reach now,” she shared. Her kids complain of the lack of one or two favourite snacks which they don't get as regularly now. “They are not worth the money actually,” she added. “I try to find local alternatives.” Some families have had to make even more changes to their shopping behaviour and spending pattern. Instead of buying food items conscientiously, considering their soaring prices, they are now eking out their salaries in order to have a nutritious diet and balanced meals. “My monthly grocery budget has almost doubled,” said Farzeen Ahmed. “I am able to save nothing. In fact, we are pulling out of our savings all the time. It stresses me out so much when I begin to think how long can we stretch this for? God forbid we need money for an emergency, what are we going to do?” Meanwhile, balancing the kitchen expenses with utilities bills and transport does not mean you can buy what you please. “Flour and gram flour have shot up, fruits and vegetables are expensive, too. Meat and chicken prices have also increased. I don’t know how to provide a nutritious, balanced meal for my family within my budget,” said Farzeen. She has had to cut out beef and mutton from her diet. “We can only afford chicken. Things like extra virgin olive oil, mushrooms, fancy breads like gluten-free, sourdough, and country wholewheat, I can only look at and touch. Bakery items of any quality are very expensive.” “It is difficult for us,” said Farzeen, “and we are two earning members in a family of four. Imagine what it is like with one breadwinner and more family members.” Everyone wonders how lower-income households must be coping with this crushing inflation. For instance, domestic help– for them, the commute to work eats up a lion's share of their wages. How will they put three square meals on the table when whatever grocery item they touch on a vendor's cart, their hands will get scalded by its price alone. “As grocery prices are influenced by various internal and external factors—many of which have no direct relation to actual production costs—even simple activities like eating out once a month or taking the whole family out have become highly inaccessible and are now considered a luxury,” shared Taha Rafi, explaining the changing lifestyle in his double-income household. Both he and his wife work in multinational companies, and yet, for this family of four, the ability to consistently purchase high-quality groceries has been severely affected. “As parents, we often compromise on our own consumption to ensure that our children receive the best possible nutrition,” Taha said. “Fresh seasonal fruits, for example, are now bought primarily for the kids to help maintain a balanced diet.” Similarly, items like pure desi ghee are reserved only for his children, while he and his wife consume industrial cooking oil. The paralysing gap between earning and spending is ever-widening. With frozen salaries and mounting prices, simply feeding mouths has become an undiscardable weight on the shoulders of Pakistanis. According to the Labour Force Survey 2024-25, average monthly wages rose by around 62% from 24,028 rupees to 39,042 rupees, over the past four years. However the coinciding inflation during the period has reduced real incomes and real purchasing power. “Basically, disposable income has gone,” said Farzeen “We live hand to mouth. If curtains need to be replaced, etc, we just have to wait for better days. I’d rather put food on the table. Home maintenance, outings, leisure and hobbies are only for the wealthy, not the middle-class.” “The rising cost of groceries has led to a drastic decrease in the ability to save and, more importantly, to purchase good-quality grocery items. Saving now feels like a distant dream, as not only groceries but other basic necessities have also made it difficult to maintain a normal standard of living,” echoed Taha. Dr Zafar Ahmed, an economist and Dean of the Faculty of Commerce and Finance at the University of Punjab, explained that rising petrol prices have affected all sectors of life. “If someone earning 40,000 rupees per month previously spent 10,000 rupees on fuel or transport, that cost has now increased to 15,000 rupees. People are cutting back on food expenses, and psychological stress is also increasing, leading to irritability. Educational expenses for children are becoming harder to manage,” he added. The impact of rising fuel prices is not confined to petrol pumps; it quietly travels along the entire food supply chain before landing in the consumer’s kitchen. Every household has seen this ripple effect up close. Frustrated by what she describes as arbitrary mark-ups, Farzeen has stopped shopping at large supermarkets altogether. “They are blindly charging 20 to 100 rupees more on everyday items—rice, pulses, cooking oil, milk, even detergent,” she said. Instead, she now relies on neighbourhood parchoon shops and pushcart vendors for fruits and vegetables. But the relief is limited. “Even in the open market, prices have nearly doubled,” she added. Shopkeepers, she said, often point to the same reason: the rising cost of transporting goods from wholesale markets. “They tell us it costs them more to bring stock in, and distributors are charging them higher rates too.” This cascading effect means that increases at one end of the chain—fuel, freight, or wholesale—are quickly passed down to consumers. Prices of staples such as pulses, rice, and spices have risen by 40 to 70 rupees per kilogram in recent months alone, according to Farzeen’s estimates. While she acknowledges the pressures faced by small retailers, Farzeen is critical of the lack of effective oversight. “There is no control over prices anywhere,” she said. “The government forms committees, but it is all hogwash—nothing materialises.” State-run alternatives offer little comfort. “Utility stores and bachat bazaars often have substandard items,” she added, leaving families with few viable options. Is the government providing relief? Experts warn that continued pressure could rapidly shrink the middle class, already struggling to meet basic needs, and push more people into poverty if global oil prices remain high. Rising unemployment, economic slowdown, and inflation may further worsen the situation. While the government continues to claim that inflation is easing, the experience on the ground tells a different story. Last month, inflation rose to 10.9 per cent — the highest in nearly two years — after the government began increasing taxes under the International Monetary Fund programme in July 2024. The increase surpassed the finance ministry's maximum projected forecast of nine per cent. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the April 2025 hike in motor fuels included a shocking 40 per cent increase, while diesel prices saw a staggering rise of 93 per cent. Since Pakistan is an oil-importing country, economic experts say the increase in global fuel prices is directly passed on to the public. Following the recent rise in petrol and diesel prices, not only have travel costs increased, but the impact has also reached everyday commodities, contributing to an overall rise in inflation. The details showed that food prices also increased significantly last month, mainly due to the rise in transport fares. Tomatoes became expensive by 75 per cent, followed by a 42 per cent increase in onion prices and nearly 40 per cent in wheat prices. Wheat flour inflation jumped by over 30 per cent last month, according to PBS figures. Transport services became expensive by 38 per cent despite the government's decision to partially subsidise fares through direct subsidy. Overall, transport group inflation rose to 30 per cent, while the housing, water, electricity, and gas group inflation rate increased by 17 per cent compared to the same period last year. The pace of food inflation accelerated last month to 6.9 per cent in urban areas, while it jumped to 7.3 per cent in rural areas. Energy group prices rose to 13.8 per cent in urban areas — the highest since October 2024. Energy-based inflation in rural areas also climbed to 13.6 per cent in villages and towns — the highest since July 2024. In this situation, the government’s key challenge is to control inflation and provide relief, which requires alternative energy sources, subsidies, and policy reforms. According to Dr Kaiser Bengali, a leading expert on the economy, “Although the government is attempting relief measures, such as increasing support under the Benazir Income Support Programme, providing subsidies in the transport sector, and offering per-litre petrol subsidies for motorcyclists, more effective measures are needed.” To offset the impact of future price hikes on poorer segments, the IMF has asked the government to increase the cash handouts being distributed among the 10 million Benazir Income Support Programme beneficiaries. The number of beneficiaries is also expected to increase by 200,000 by June this year to 10.2 million. However, economists argue that such relief measures offer only temporary respite while the structural causes of inflation remain unresolved. “The government should introduce fuel rationing to reduce petrol consumption, which could help stabilise prices,” Dr Bengali suggested. Instead, critics argue, the government has continued recovering global fuel prices from domestic consumers while simultaneously increasing taxes on petrol. Economists say this has triggered a wider inflationary cycle in the country. The central bank is now trying to control inflation by increasing interest rates despite the fact that inflation is rising largely because of government policies and global price shocks. Dr Bengali said that while rising petrol prices affect all segments of society, daily-wage earners and salaried individuals—already considered low-income groups—are the most affected. “Low-income households spend around 70 per cent of their income on food, while higher-income groups spend about 40 per cent. The middle-class is also being severely impacted, forcing them to cut down on their basic needs, while food inflation continues to rise,” he added. Across households, the same anxiety repeats itself in different forms: how much further can salaries stretch when the price of nearly every basic item continues to climb?