‘Prices are not going to go down’: How jet fuel shortages could affect summer holiday plans

A ir travel and international holidays are taken as a given for the vast majority of Irish people. Yet, for the second time in five years, events elsewhere have cast a shadow of uncertainty across many a getaway plan. As of this weekend, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the vast majority of oil and gas tankers as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran . With much of Europe’s jet fuel supplies reliant on exports from the Gulf – the last deliveries left the region in late February – the industry is wondering when the next shipments will be able to leave the region. Conor Molloy from Killiney in south County Dublin has two holidays booked for himself and his wife over the coming months: Florence, Italy in May, and Calgary, Canada in July. “These would have been booked about eight weeks ago,” he says. With airlines liable to pay compensation if they cancel a flight less than two weeks before departure, is he checking the emails for updates on his Italian trip? “I wouldn’t watch the email – you could drive yourself nuts. I’m nearly at the point where I don’t even read the paper any more,” he says. The couple decided to stick to their plans after the war broke out in late February, but the biggest risk now to the Calgary booking is a potential shortage of jet fuel. “My bet is that ‘no fuel’ means we’ll get our money back, or an alternate [flight],” he says. The warning from the head of the International Energy Agency on Thursday – that Europe could face a shortage of jet fuel within six weeks – will have alarmed many holidaymakers. It follows comments from Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary that up to 25 per cent of the airline’s supplies could be jeopardised by an ongoing conflict. Europe is particularly exposed to any shortage. [ Ryanair chief’s looming test of crisis management amid warning of $200 per barrel of oil Opens in new window ] In a more recent statement, the airline said that jet fuel suppliers were guaranteeing deliveries into mid-May. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed into May and June, risks to supplies at some airports could not be ruled out. Many industry observers are crossing their fingers and betting that peace will arrive in the Gulf before that crunch point is reached. Travel adviser Eoghan Corry says that supplies of jet fuel vary from country to country throughout Europe – and there is a “certain amount of alarmism” about a fuel crunch. He notes that a number of airports in Italy introduced restrictions on jet fuel earlier this month – and smaller, regional airports in southern Europe would be the most exposed in any crisis scenario. “Ireland is reasonably placed when it comes to stocks of jet fuel,” he says, “but we have the issue of not being able to refine our own fuel. “If other countries start to get shirty about access to their refined fuel, we are not in the best place in the world.” However, Corry believes the clout of Ryanair and Aer Lingus as two of the biggest fuel purchasers in Europe would work to Ireland’s advantage. “Our two airlines are two of the biggest customers when it comes to buying power and pecking order; they would be in a good position,” he says. Flights to southern and western Europe should not be under major threat over the coming month or so, he believes. Rather, airlines such as Ryanair are likely to start trimming the “fat routes” that are served by multiple flights every day if they see a looming shortage. “Sure as night follows day, they will cancel the flights that they have. Dublin to Stansted, Dublin to Heathrow – where you have 12 or 13 rotations – they’ll start trimming rotations off it. And they will do it more than two weeks in advance, so as to not have to pay compensation. “In a lot of cases people might not even notice; they might be shifted on to a flight one hour before or after the flight that they had booked.” Corry does not anticipate surcharges will be slapped on seats that have been booked to date, but expects that there will be a “late booker” premium. “It is unlikely we will see fuel surcharges, but the added cost to the airlines could be buried in the ‘late-bookers’ price,” he says. “If you haven’t booked a flight, jump now. If you have your accommodation already without the flight, I would book now, as prices are not going to go down.” He also recommends that travellers consult their insurance policies, saying many do not cover flight disruption. They can be upgraded for a small fee, he says, and will protect against strike action as well. “Strike season has started; we lost 20 rotations from Lufthansa in the last four days. All these things are ganging up on us,” he says. [ No sign Irish holidaymakers will have summer holidays cancelled, but prices could surge Opens in new window ] The conflict in Iran and the Gulf has forced airlines to reroute away from the Middle East, to consolidate flights and to reduce the frequency of flights. This has had a big impact on anyone heading to Asia and Australia. ‘Any time we have a confidence issue we see consumers pausing – is it Iran, the cost of living in general, the cost of fuel, the protests?’ — Paul Hackett, ClickandGo.com “People who are booked to the Far East are sticking with their plans as far as possible, but they are rerouting where they can,” says Clare Dunne of the Irish Travel Agents Association. “It is costing them a few bob more to do this: the old routes via London with British Airways, Frankfurt with Lufthansa, Air France via Paris – the routes I grew up with.” Dunne says this is the way that people used to get to destinations such as Australia, Thailand and Japan, before the arrival of the big Gulf carriers such as Etihad and Emirates and their routes through Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “As for Australia, people are going; where the flights are operating they are still going. It is not something the airlines are even promoting, but they are still getting people there,” she says. “You’ll get good prices with those airlines. Frequency has dropped, but there is availability.” Interest in eastern destinations has dropped significantly since early March. She says that as a holiday location, western Europe remains as strong as ever – Spain and Portugal have been the beneficiaries of the uncertainty wrought by the war. However, the “booking window” has narrowed, with people booking closer to a holiday than they were previously. The last time this happened was during Covid, when restrictions on movement and travel came and went throughout 2020 and 2021. Dunne believes it is now “a good time to book”. “Prices overall are quite good at the moment; airlines want the business; Spain and Portugal want the business,” she says. The biggest losers in this crisis, from an Irish bookings point of view, appear to be in the eastern Mediterranean. In the early stages of the war, several missiles were shot down close to Turkey’s eastern border with Iran, while a drone attack occurred close to an RAF base in Cyprus. Potential holidaymakers to those destinations have taken notice. “Anything in the eastern Mediterranean has had a problem – anything in the western Med has seen a pickup,” says Paul Hackett, chief executive of travel booking site ClickandGo.com . “There definitely is a softening in bookings to Turkey and Cyprus; Greece is suffering, but to a lesser extent,” he says. “Overall, the market is down.” Hackett says consumer confidence has taken a battering since the start of the year, and when consumers are uncertain of the future, holiday bookings traditionally take a pause. “Any time we have a confidence issue we see consumers pausing – is it Iran, the cost of living in general, the cost of fuel, the protests?” he says. “When consumers have a lot of stuff going on in their world, discretionary purchases get affected, and a holiday is the biggest one you’re going to make. “There is so much media noise – whether its fuel surcharges, running out of jet fuel, or talk of cancellations.” As for the United States, travel agents report a general softening in demand – something that has been evident since last year. The headlines around Donald Trump ’s hardline immigration policy, the activity of Ice immigration agents and the tightening of US border controls are cited as major concerns Irish people now have when considering a visit. It seems the policies of Trump, at home and abroad, have narrowed the travel options for the summer of 2026 – at least as far as Irish tourists are concerned.