SA's GPD growth: Economists flag Middle East war as a risk

South Africa's economy may have recorded a stronger start than expected, but economists have flagged the ongoing Middle East war as a risk. On Tuesday, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported a 0.5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2026, but there are fears that the gains may be short-lived. Tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices and transport costs, raising concerns about inflationary pressure. While the country’s first-quarter growth was welcomed, concerns about the outlook have also been flagged, suggesting that the first-quarter data may have preceded the severe impacts of the Middle East conflict. “Overall, given a bit of a stronger start of the year, this does indicate to me slightly better annual growth number than previously expected, and in the order of about 1.3% real GDP growth for 2026 is what I’m looking out for. “Slightly above last year, but with the ongoing Middle East war and the impact thereof quite uncertain, there is some downward risks to the growth outlook,” said economist Elize Kruger. The real economic pain from these headwinds is expected to be seen in the second quarter, but the full-year growth outlook remains cautiously optimistic.