Seán Moran: Anatomy of an upset – Down spring the trap but not all bad news for Donegal

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown but not in the most obvious sense. The football league title comes with a health warning, as Donegal found out in Letterkenny on Sunday. On the face of it, this was an easy call. The Ulster champions for the past two years had added the Division 1 league title, reversing both the outcome and the one-sided nature of last July’s All-Ireland defeat by Kerry. Their opponents had won Division 3 but had to go to extra-time to beat a Wexford team that might well have won in 70 minutes but for a rogue bounce on the Croke Park surface. The least impressive of the divisional winners that weekend in Croke Park, Down are now the only ones still in the championship after the fall of Carlow, Meath, and Donegal’s own previous title defense. Down have had an impressive couple of seasons under Conor Laverty and were regarded as unlucky to get relegated last year. Through their status as Tailteann Cup winners, they were guaranteed a place in the Sam Maguire—only Tier 2 winners to emerge from the All-Ireland group stages. They had posted a competitive defeat by Donegal in the Ulster championship 12 months ago. The pecking order was still clear. Down were underdogs. The draw for Ulster provided Laverty with six months to focus on Donegal and follow their progress this year. It’s not unusual for teams to obsess about their first-round opponents from the moment they discover them, especially as the championship evolves. Co-commentator Aaron Kernan noted that Down’s game plan had sunk its claws into Donegal, with them “sitting and talking, plotting and planning for months.” Brian Mullins recalled the impact of Kevin Heffernan’s training methods over 50 years ago, emphasizing that ‘buy-in’—the commitment of players to the coach’s vision—was key to success. The fitter Down became, the better their results. However, Donegal’s captain Michael Langan’s injury absence cost them a high-performing contributor, especially in shooting accuracy from distance. In the league final against Kerry, Langan kicked the first five points, including a pair of two-pointers and a point, pushing Donegal into a 15th-minute lead they never relinquished. Donegal nurtured Down through the early stages by failing to convert chances despite possession. At the same venue last February, they had remorselessly leveraged possession to end Mayo’s thoughts of taking points, but this time, their passing and lack of conversions gave Down a bigger oxygen hit. In their two wins over Kerry this year, Donegal simply wouldn’t give the ball away, conceding just five turnovers—a count that could have been even lower. On Sunday, Down effected 13 turnovers, a major disruption to Donegal’s possession. Underdogs must trust the process. By half-time, Down led by a point due to a confident outside-of-the-boot shot by Caolan Mooney, who reconsidered retirement in March. The only reason Donegal were that close was due to an opportunist goal by Caolan McGonigle, accepted when Conor O’Donnell missed a point chance. The season flows seamlessly between league and championship, but variations in form should be minimal. However, fate often depends on geography. In the last 20 years, six league winners from Ulster and Connacht lost their next fixture in the championship—five if you count Mayo in 2019, who beat New York but lost their next match—and the other, Donegal in 2007, didn’t reach their provincial final. Of the remaining 14 winners from Leinster and Munster, 10 went on to take their provincial title, six of whom added the All-Ireland. Thus, winning the league is better if you’re from Leinster or Munster in terms of championship possibilities. A tough weekend beckons. Should Westmeath beat Kildare in Leinster, Down will have to defeat Armagh in the Ulster semi-final or slip back into the Tailteann Cup, which would be an intolerable setback. Donegal now have time for a reset at the midpoint of the season. Jim McGuinness will welcome the training ground and avoid two hard matches in Ulster. He will also appreciate that Kerry showed last year—having been beaten by nine points against Meath—that the key target is to hit form at the end of June.