Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are climbing heading into Monday morning following a major de-escalation in the Middle East. The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Aug. 3 opening bell. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?” betting contract currently shows an 86% chance of an “Up” open. Early trading volume for the Monday contract sits at $13,032. Why That Number Matters The macroeconomic landscape shifted dramatically over the weekend, relieving severe geopolitical pressures that had been weighing on the markets: The Market Outlook Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian notes that global equity markets are showing signs of stabilization after a period of severe tech deleveraging. The South Korean Kospi, for example, saw a three-day aggregate decline of 17% followed by a massive 18% surge on Friday. However, it was nearly 5% lower again on Monday. El-Erian attributes the recent rise in longer-term bond yields not just to Federal Reserve communication, but to the reality of significant capital demand required to finance AI infrastructure. Looking ahead, America’s growth momentum will rely heavily on AI spending, consumer resilience, and navigating geopolitical shocks, with all eyes turning to the upcoming monthly jobs report later this week. How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Friday, July 31 Polymarket contract successfully resolved “Up.” The contract settled for the “Up” outcome, attracting $84,543 in total trading volume as the market closed July on a high note.