Trump targets Iran’s trade lifelines — here are the countries most exposed

The U.S. announced an "economic D-Day" campaign Monday to isolate Iran from the global economy, threatening penalties against "enablers" that continue doing business with Tehran. This move aims to sever the trade lifeline sustaining Iran’s economy amid six months of war. Skepticism remains over whether the Trump administration will follow through, but the threat could force a collision course with governments accounting for most of Iran’s remaining foreign trade. China is Iran’s largest oil buyer, accounting for about 90% of its exports, with bilateral trade valued at $9.96 billion in 2025 (excluding unreported crude exports). Chinese refiners often rebrand Iranian oil as Malaysian or Indonesian crude, settled outside the dollar system. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned several refineries for Iranian oil purchases, while sparing Chinese financial institutions. Beijing opposes U.S. sanctions, arguing economic pressure won’t resolve disputes. While China may comply quietly to avoid sanctions, its focus remains on dollar access for U.S. market entry. The United Arab Emirates, a major trading hub for Iran, saw bilateral trade reach $28 billion in 2024. The UAE suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran after Iranian missiles targeted Emirati territory, disrupting Iran’s reliance on UAE banks for illicit transactions. The U.S. urges the UAE to crack down on shadow banking in Dubai. Turkey maintains commercial ties with Iran, importing Iranian natural gas and exporting manufactured goods. Turkey’s gas imports from Iran rose to 18.6% of its total natural gas supply in 2024, despite Ankara’s efforts to diversify suppliers like Azerbaijan and Russia. Iraq, dependent on Iranian electricity and gas, renewed a five-year gas contract in 2024, supplying up to 660 billion cubic feet annually. Iraq-Iran trade exceeded $10 billion in 2025, but disruptions since the war have reduced trade volumes. Sanctions could limit Baghdad’s payments for Iranian energy. India, Iran’s top five trading partner, saw bilateral trade fall to $1.6 billion in 2026 (from $2.3 billion in 2023). India exports rice, tea, sugar, and pharmaceuticals to Iran and imports fruits. Resuming crude oil imports from Iran in April 2026 could be tested by U.S. sanctions on refiners procuring Iranian energy.