US and Iran wage conflict, global economies feel the pain

Two months after the US-Iran conflict began, fighting has paused but no clear end is in sight. The US initially promised a quick victory but later admitted it had already won in many ways. However, the conflict has spiraled beyond expectations, dragging the world into a crisis with no apparent winners. Civilians in Iran have suffered the most, with over 3,600 deaths—more than 1,700 civilians—due to US and Israeli strikes on infrastructure. Iran’s regime intensified repression, executing over 600 people since the start of the year and imposing an internet blockade, worsening economic hardship with rising unemployment and poverty. Lebanon became the epicenter of the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, with over 2,500 deaths and 600,000 displaced. The Gulf states, including the UAE, faced missile and drone attacks, while the Hormuz Strait closure disrupted oil and gas trade for Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait. The US economy has been hit by rising fuel and service costs, and President Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to 37%. Globally, slower growth in Europe, rising energy prices, and inflation risks (IMF warns of 3.8%–4.4% inflation) have affected Asia, Latin America, and Africa. The US and Israel’s joint actions against Iran’s nuclear program have not secured clear strategic gains, while Iran’s hardline leadership and diplomatic leverage—such as controlling the Hormuz Strait—have strengthened its position. China, as the world’s largest energy importer, is positioning itself as a potential arbiter of peace amid US military withdrawals from Asia. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s anti-drone technology and partnerships with Gulf states could expand its influence. The conflict has also redirected US weapons shipments, benefiting Russia’s defense industry despite sanctions. Despite record oil-and-gas profits, reforms in renewable energy may reduce long-term fossil fuel benefits. The global community faces mounting costs, with no clear path to de-escalation or constructive diplomacy.