Wednesday briefing: How Farage’s byelection gambit may already have backfired

Good morning. I was hoping to be writing today on the late Ali Khamenei’s vast, week-long funeral in Iran. Given yesterday’s events in Westminster however, I’m afraid we’re instead turning our attention to Nigel Farage. Please accept my sincere apologies. Yesterday afternoon, flanked by union jack flags, the Reform leader delivered an extended, wide-ranging and frankly rather rambling statement on his “future in public life”. He complained at length about investigations into the vast sums of cash he has received as gifts, and chastised the public for being ungrateful at the sacrifices he has made on our behalf during his time in office. He bemoaned life in the “communist country” that is Great Britain. And then, Farage announced his resignation as the member of parliament for Clacton-on-Sea. Don’t crack open your bottle of state-produced vodka quite yet though, comrade. Farage immediately clarified he has every intention to run in the byelection that will follow. With characteristic modesty, Farage declared the race to be a “people v the establishment” contest. The plan for today’s First Edition was to explore how one leader delegitimised dissent and avoided accountability. Instead, we’ll look at how another (would-be) leader is seemingly attempting to do just that. First, as always, the headlines. Five big stories Benefits | Disability benefits in England and Wales are “not fit for purpose” and the entire assessment system must be redrawn as part of a radical welfare overhaul, the government’s landmark review of personal independence payments will say. UK news | Prince Harry and six other prominent figures are facing a legal bill of up to £50m after losing their case against the publisher of the Daily Mail over claims it used unlawful methods to source stories. Iran | Iran has accused the US of violating the agreement aimed at ending the war between the two sides, after the US military launched strikes around the strait of Hormuz and revoked a temporary sanctions waiver for Tehran to export oil. France | The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has announced she will run for the presidency in 2027 and will lodge an appeal to France’s highest court over her sentence to wear an electronic ankle tag for the embezzlement of European parliament funds. Defence | Donald Trump has revived his bid for the US to acquire Greenland, threatening to pull all American armed forces out of Europe after the continent repeatedly pushed back. In depth: ‘I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions’ Nigel Farage with George Cottrell (left), after Farage during his campaign launch in Clacton, 2024. Photograph: James Manning/PA For much of the last decade, Nigel Farage has been omnipresent in print and on our screens – popping up for press conferences, photo ops and TV appearances with astonishing regularity. It has made his general absence from public-facing events over the past few months particularly conspicuous. Reform would never admit it, of course, but it just so happened that Farage’s (brief) retreat from public life aligned with a staggering story broken by the Guardian in late April: Farage was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 British general election. Farage failed to declare the huge gift to parliamentary authorities. A standards investigation is ongoing, and Farage maintains he has not broken any parliamentary rules. Timing really is everything. At 1pm yesterday, a deadline the Guardian had given Farage to comment on the latest update in our investigation passed. Our City editor, Anna Isaac, revealed that Farage’s £5m gift was reported to the National Crime Agency by bankers who were concerned it may have been laundered money. An hour later, his resignation video was streaming. In his address, Farage made up for lost time in front of the camera. It took him a full 15 minutes to get to his resignation announcement. Before that, he celebrated Reform’s remarkable May local election success (and failed to mention the party’s drubbing in June’s Makerfield byelection). He protested his innocence at great length. “Let me be absolutely clear, I have done nothing wrong,” Farage said. “Making money is not a crime.” At one stage, it seemed Farage might be launching a crowdfunder: “I had a very, very good high-earning career. I gave that up at a huge cost.” (In Brussels, Farage took home €101,808 a year before tax. His MP’s salary is £98,599. Since entering Westminster, he’s pocketed an estimated further £2m and counting). This weekend, the Sunday Times published another investigation into the Reform leader’s finances. It reported that Farage did not declare gifts and benefits provided by crypto entrepreneur and convicted fraudster George Cottrell, which included social media staff, security and accommodation at his rented five-storey townhouse near Buckingham Palace. Farage has insisted he followed the rules over the support he had received from Cottrell. “They can’t beat us fairly, so they’ve chosen to use foul means,” Farage complained of the apparently undisputed reporting. “The new attack from the media is that somehow I am a crook. I am dishonest. Yet another reason to hate me.” And then came the resignation. “I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions ... It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go.” Farage’s hope, surely, is to reassert support from his political base, regain momentum in the polls after months of stagnation, and bury the growing list of sleaze allegations that he just can’t shake. What happens now? Technically, a byelection could take place as soon as August, but early indications are the vote will be held in early September. While parliamentary procedure sets a general timeline, as the incumbents Reform can control the specific timing. When Farage was elected in 2024, he won his seat with more than 21,000 votes – a majority of more than 8,400. By yesterday evening, the Conservatives, Labour, the Green party, Restore Britain and the Lib Dems all confirmed that they would not stand candidates to run against Farage. Perennial novelty candidate Count Binface, meanwhile, has thrown his shiny, bin-shaped hat into the ring. In Clacton, Guardian reporters found weariness among constituents about the impending election. Keir Starmer described the move as a “a desperate stunt from Nigel Farage” adding “he is up to his neck in sleaze”. Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said “This new stunt is his latest attempt to escape consequences for his biggest grift. We won’t let him”, and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch accused Farage of throwing a “hissy fit”. Rupert Lowe, leader of far-right party Restore, was quick off the mark too: “The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions ... He should have declared that £5m. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a byelection to distract from that.” For good measure, Team Burnham chimed in, labelling the whole thing a “gimmick” (and not a cheap one, mind). The Makerfield byelection required £226,208 of taxpayer cash to be set aside to cover the cost of voting. Yesterday afternoon, Nigel Farage made a point of declaring Reform’s offer to local authorities in Clacton to cover the cost of the byelection his resignation forced. There is, however, no mechanism through which this could actually happen. There’s precedent for other parties standing aside in vanity project/point of principle byelections. In 2008, the Conservative MP David Davis resigned his seat only to re-stand in protest of the Labour government’s 42-day terror detention plan. Neither Labour nor the Lib Dems ran against Davis, in order to take the wind out of his sails. Farage’s opponents are similarly attempting to rid the election of pizzazz. There were inescapable echoes of Donald Trump in Farage’s statement yesterday, not just in its long-winded nature: attacks on the media, a refusal to take questions, and a notable wholehearted defence of profiteering. It’s clear that Reform’s opponents are lining up to frame this vote as a vote on sleaze. Farage, it seems, has a different calculation in mind. The president has pocketed $2bn since returning to the White House, and his base doesn’t seem to care. Farage is surely hoping the Clacton electorate will afford him a similar privilege. Evading scrutiny? If anyone on Team Farage was hoping a resignation would help him avoid scrutiny, they’re in for disappointment. As evidenced by the media scrum in Makerfield, the political press pack loves a high-drama byelection to report on – and this one is even closer to London. Simply mouthing off at reporter questions – as he did this week at Heathrow Airport – won’t cut it in front of voters. And what’s more, investigations into misconduct by parliamentary authorities don’t automatically end if an MP steps down. As the code of conduct outlines: While ongoing investigation(s) will be suspended during the byelection period, it can and likely will resume again after, regardless of whether Farage wins or loses. There’s also the very real possibility that Farage will win this byelection, only to be soon forced to face another. If the House of Commons Committee on Standards orders the suspension of an MP for 10 days or more for breaching parliamentary rules, only 10% of voters in said constituency need to sign a recall petition for an MP to lose their seat, triggering a byelection. Given the scale of Farage’s alleged misdemeanours, it’s highly possible he’d receive that level of punishment. So brace yourself. There could well be not one but two Farage fests before Christmas, and we’d be footing the £500k bill.