Why Nigeria’s one-time political giant may face extinction

Once the undisputed giant of Nigerian politics, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) now finds itself on the brink of extinction. A question hanging over the campaign for January’s general election is whether the PDP can survive. A factional struggle that has ended up in the courts over who exactly is in charge could end up rendering it irrelevant at the ballot box. It is a remarkable fall for the party, founded in 1998, which appeared impregnable after the end of military rule a year later. Its chairman boasted in 2008 that it would govern for six decades. For 16 years, it controlled the presidency—through Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, and Goodluck Jonathan—and the vast majority of the country’s 36 states. However, the 2015 federal election was a seismic shock. The PDP lost the presidential vote to Muhammadu Buhari and the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition of opposition parties and disgruntled former members. Goodluck Jonathan handed power over to Buhari after losing the election, marking the beginning of the PDP’s decline. Thrust into the political wilderness, the party’s national leaders struggled with the challenges of opposition. Political analyst Ishaq Buhari noted, ‘They were a party so used to power; being in opposition was a new challenge they struggled with from the start.’ The crisis deepened in 2025, marked by a wave of defections and bitter internal conflicts. A group of state governors switched party allegiance, particularly devastating as the PDP initially held eight states. By December 2025, five state governors—from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers—defected to the APC, citing the PDP’s declining viability and a desire for better cooperation with the federal government. By early 2026, the PDP held only three states, now down to zero, with the Oyo governorship slipping away. Internal power struggles, factionalism, and insistence on rotational power distribution further eroded the party’s morale. The PDP lost high-profile figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who left the party in 2025. The crisis was intensified by a leadership tussle in November 2025, when a faction held a contentious national convention in Ibadan, Oyo state, despite court orders attempting to stop it. This convention expelled Nyesom Wike, a prominent PDP member serving in President Bola Tinubu’s APC-led government. Wike, who helped found the party, heads a rival faction, creating a political stand-off that has paralyzed the PDP. His controversial support for the APC in the last presidential election led to accusations of betrayal. In the eyes of the law, Wike’s faction is the legitimate party, allowing it to submit its slate of presidential and parliamentary candidates to the electoral commission. Meanwhile, the rival faction lacks representation on the ballot. Some die-hard loyalists remain optimistic, citing examples from Thailand and Argentina, where parties have rebounded after years in the wilderness. Politician Aminu Adamu, part of the anti-Wike faction, believes the PDP can return to its former glory by 2032 if it corrects its course. Others argue that the party still has a grassroots network essential to winning and sustaining power, but by 2032, it may be too late. With the party in disarray and candidates backed by Wike on the ballot, voters are unlikely to trust them. Analyst Deji Olarenwaju believes the only way to save the PDP is through an alliance with the African Democratic Congress or Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress, as they are seen as the biggest opposition groups. ‘On their own, they are going nowhere,’ he says.