Armagh won't fear Killarney bearpit as knockout arrives

Neutrals were left underwhelmed by the Round 2 draw - unjustifiably as it turned out. No one, barring some of the teams involved, could complain about the Round 3 draw. Few enough people might be running off to the bookies on the back of my predictions this week, in light of how last weekend turned out. All I can say is I was hardly alone in not foreseeing the Cork and Louth victories, or the limp display of Roscommon in Clones. I took a slightly gratuitous swipe at the Rossies on TV after Joanne put me on the spot asking about All-Ireland contenders. All I can say is that I hadn't intended to say that - it just came out of my mouth before I had thought about it. They are hurting this week, for sure. For Roscommon, it's one of their most frustrating no-shows in the All-Ireland series, coming in the wake of all the heady talk we were hearing in the days after the Connacht final. It's as if their whole footballing identity is built around taking out Mayo and Galway in Connacht. They bring such fire and brimstone to those games and then obviously celebrate like lunatics when they do win the Nestor Cup - which they do with impressive regularity in fairness, given their size as a county. They rail against their status as third in the pecking order in the province and are hugely driven to put it up to their bigger neighbours. Then, when they get outside the province, they don't seem to know how to psychologically approach games against the likes of Monaghan or Clare. All the bite and energy seems to evaporate. They went out with a whimper, really. It's something they'll have to address because - neighbourly slagging aside - they do actually have the talent, particularly in the forwards, to achieve so much more. Mayo fans were certainly extracting revenge on Whatsapp after the Rossies' exit - many readers west of the Shannon will have seen the RIP notice that's been circulating ('Cause of death: Over-celebration syndrome'). But Mayo have their own problems to be worried about. Not for the first time, we butchered the endgame in a match that could and should have been won. Sam Callinan might have been the wrong man in possession in the 67th minute but his conservatism proved to be costly. It's a lesson to teams that in the two-pointer era, taking a fisted point is no longer the 'percentage play' in that scenario. The optimal option was to fist across to Tommy Conroy, who had peeled away from the covering defender sufficiently to receive a simple pass to the far post. The next best bet was for Sam to go for goal himself. It obviously depends on the situation. Fisting over the bar was the correct option for Shane McGrath to take in the final minute in Salthill to put Galway three up and out of reach of a two-point equaliser. But that wasn't the scenario facing Sam when he bore down on goal. The draw is kinder than at least one of the possible alternatives, given there was a 50% chance of drawing Kerry after the first two games were sorted. But make no mistake, Meath have an array of attacking weapons and will pose a serious challenge. The game is basically 50/50. Given the state of both defences, it could be like one of those Premier League games between Liverpool and Newcastle in the 1990s, when Kevin Keegan was managing the latter. I'm not sure you could see either team as genuine All-Ireland contenders this season, though it has been a strange year. There's a fair bit riding on the match for both teams. A quarter-final appearance would mean that Andy Moran's first season could be deemed a reasonable success - if not a wild success. Defeat would see it written off as a disappointing campaign where they flatlined. For Meath, a loss would signal a regression after last year's run to the semi-final and their impressive Division 2 campaign. They are missing one of their big two-point shooters in Ruairí Kinsella and Mayo have the X-factor in attack to expose their defence. I'll give the nod to Mayo, although I did the same last week... Killarney is obviously the game of the round. One of the bona fide All-Ireland contenders will be shunted into the gravel this week. It highlights the jeopardy in this All-Ireland championship format, which I regard as the best one we've had. With 10 seconds to go, Armagh looked home and hosed and in an All-Ireland quarter-final, with a week off. One fumbled shot and they're looking down the barrel of a trip to Killarney, the worst possible draw they could have gotten to save their season. Ethan Rafferty was devastated at the final whistle though it's not just on him. Armagh made numerous mistakes down the stretch when the clock was on their side - between missed point attempts, loose handpasses and poor handling. For such a seasoned team, it was very surprising. It's probably worth offering Louth some overdue credit here. The resilience and the quality they showed to stick with one of the All-Ireland contenders marked them out as a top team. Taking the league into the equation, they're after winning seven of their last eight games and have beaten Tyrone, Derry, Dublin and Armagh within that run. In retrospect, the performance against Dublin in Portlaoise was a complete outlier. Jarlath Burns had his head in his hands during the draw on the livestream but I don't think Kerry would have wanted this tie anymore than Armagh. Kerry and Armagh have been plunged into an elimination game earlier than expected Last year's third quarter demolition job frames the backdrop to this game but you would wonder whether this game is coming too early for Kerry, given their injury situation across the summer. Joe O'Connor and Gavin White were back last Saturday and looked in fine form, but it's doubtful whether Seánie O'Shea or Tom O'Sullivan will make it. They'll be huge losses for Kerry, if so. Are they primed for a game of this magnitude? There's no question that Armagh are the more road-tested team thus far. Most observers are plumping for Kerry based on last year's display and the home advantage factor. I don't think Armagh will be too perturbed at going to Killarney. The match is almost impossible to call. Seeing as I've tipped Armagh for the All-Ireland, I better stick with them this weekend. They'll have added motivation from last year's second-half whirlwind. It could be going in the bin like the rest of the predictions. The venue could be decisive in the other two Round 3 games. It's a real pity Dublin GAA haven't run with Ger Brennan's proposal to move the home game to Parnell. It would have brought a real heightened championship atmosphere and taken Donegal further out of their comfort zone. As it is, they're well used to Croke Park and Dublin have had a terrible record there this year, losing five matches from six, the one exception being a narrow win over a depleted Monaghan team in the league. Con O'Callaghan was in cracking form in Breffni (I gather) but it's hard to tip against a Donegal win on overall form. I think the fact that the other game is in Clones tips the balance in Monaghan's direction against a Westmeath side who surely have a lot of miles in the legs this season.