BOK expected to raise 2026 growth outlook to over 3%

Economists expect the Bank of Korea to raise its growth outlook for the Korean economy this year to over 3 percent, citing stronger-than-expected semiconductor exports and recovering domestic demand. The Bank of Korea's main building in Jung District, central Seoul, as seen on Aug. 12, 2025. According to a recent survey on six economic analysts conducted by Yonhap News Agency, respondents expect the BOK to revise its 2026 growth outlook from the current 2.6 percent to as high as 3.4 percent. Analyst Ahn Jae-kyun from Korea Investment & Securities estimates this year's economic growth at 3.2 percent. Nomura Securities projects 3.4 percent annual growth. Park Jeong-woo, an economist at Nomura, notes the BOK could consider semiconductor boom and government expansionary fiscal policy. Growth outlooks for next year range between 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent. Experts agree the semiconductor supercycle will continue, though Joo Won from Hyundai Research Institute cautions it may peak sooner than expected, citing August chip export declines. Most agree the BOK could raise Korea's account surplus estimate from $250 billion, with the first half of 2026 already surpassing last year's annual $191 billion surplus. Experts expect the BOK to maintain its inflation rate estimate of 2.7 percent, citing rising oil prices and the high dollar-won exchange rate.