Copper price premium signals rising odds of new U.S. tariffs by 2027-2028

The price difference between U.S. COMEX copper futures and London Metal Exchange prices is increasingly used to gauge the likelihood of new U.S. tariffs on refined copper. Societe Generale estimates a 14.6% chance of a 15% tariff in January 2027 and a 37% chance of a 30% tariff in January 2028. This comes amid a 12-year high in U.S. copper imports as traders await a White House decision on further levies. The tariffs aim to reduce U.S. reliance on imported copper, which is critical for industries like AI, grid modernization, and defense, potentially impacting global copper supply and prices.