El Nino could wipe out over $5 trillion from global economy: Why India needs to worry

As the developing 2026 El Nino races toward what scientists believe could become the strongest event in modern history, new concerns are emerging about its potential economic fallout. Researchers warn that the world may be facing financial losses far exceeding those caused by previous record-breaking El Nino episodes, including the devastating 1997-98 event that erased an estimated $5.7 trillion from the global economy. The warning is backed by a landmark study published in the journal Science , which found that El Nino does not merely cause temporary weather disruptions but can leave lasting scars on economic growth that persist for years after the climate phenomenon ends. The researchers estimated that the 1982-83 El Nino caused $4.1 trillion in global income losses, while the 1997-98 event resulted in losses of about $5.7 trillion. The study concluded that national economies often fail to fully recover from the shocks triggered by extreme weather, crop failures, droughts, floods, and disruptions to trade and infrastructure. The stakes could be even higher this time. The event could peak by December 2026 and influence weather patterns well into 2027. (Photo: AP) Scientists monitoring the tropical Pacific say sea surface temperatures have already reached Super El Nino thresholds, while a record amount of subsurface heat remains poised to emerge over the coming months. Forecasts indicate the event could peak by December 2026 and influence weather patterns well into 2027. According to the Science study, climate change is amplifying the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Under an emissions pathway consistent with current global climate pledges, researchers project $84 trillion in cumulative global economic losses during the 21st century due to intensified ENSO impacts. For India, the risks are particularly significant. WHY IS INDIA NOT SAFE FROM EL NINO? Despite rapid industrialisation, agriculture remains a crucial pillar of the economy and continues to depend heavily on the southwest monsoon. The 2026 monsoon has already displayed erratic behaviour, with prolonged dry spells, shifting rain belts and uneven rainfall distribution affecting several agricultural regions. A stronger El Nino could worsen drought risks, reduce crop yields, increase food inflation and strain water resources. Beyond agriculture, sectors ranging from energy and manufacturing to transportation could face disruptions from extreme weather. With scientists warning that the current El Nino may surpass even the legendary 1997-98 event in intensity, economists and policymakers are increasingly viewing it not just as a weather phenomenon, but as a major global economic threat whose impacts could be felt long after the Pacific Ocean cools. - Ends Published By: Sibu Kumar Tripathi Published On: Aug 17, 2026 10:51 IST