Latest UK economic growth figures to be released

Latest GDP figures to be released shortly published at 06:57 BST In just a few minutes, at 07:00 BST, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will reveal the Gross Domestic Product figures for the second quarter (April to June 2026). Economists expect growth of 0.4% for this period. Businesses are coping with the effects of the Iran war, including stockpiling to mitigate supply shortages and price rises. Political uncertainty in the run-up to Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister in June and the first summer heatwave in May have also impacted industries. Economist Simon French notes a seasonal pattern where growth slows in the second half of the year due to Budget speculation, causing businesses to delay activity. The upcoming Autumn Budget on 28 October may further influence economic activity. Additionally, concerns about the Iran war’s impact on UK growth next year have been raised, with potential GDP growth as low as 0.3% in 2027 if disruptions persist until 2026. Inflation could peak at 4.3% in early 2024. The UK economy returned to modest growth in May, with a 0.1% increase, driven by the service sector but offset by declines in production and construction. The economy grew by 0.7% over the three months to May compared to the previous period. GDP measures economic activity and is crucial for pay increases, job creation, and tax revenue. A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth, potentially leading to pay freezes and job losses.