On manoeuvres with Labour's 'Top Gun' - Andy Burnham

I know - Andy Burnham makes for an improbable Tom Cruise substitute. But hear me out. This is the situation; nobody has declared war, but everybody is on manoeuvres. This is the state of the British Labour Party on Friday night in Wigan, in the wake of what many are describing as the most consequential by-election in at least half a century. It was called, lest we forget, because Mr Burnham wants to replace Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and British Prime Minster. There was no other reason. Now for the Tom Cruise bit. Like the hero of 'Top Gun: Maverick', Mr Burnham has to achieve three "impossible" tasks before his mission can be called a success. The first, was winning Makerfield. Mr Burnham had to win - and win big – if his plan was to stay alive. Not just getting elected as an MP, but convincingly defeating the Reform UK party in the process – proving he has what it takes to lead Labour against Nigel Farage’s latest political vehicle, and turn around national polls that so far put Mr Farage in poll position to win the next general election. That he has done – hugely increasing Labour’s majority in Makerfield, pulling in tactical voters from other parties in big numbers to build an anti-Reform coalition. The Conservatives were the number two party here for the 100 years up to 2024. On Thursday their candidate got just 997 votes. The Liberal Democrat candidate got 163 votes – 68 more than a man with a rubbish bin on his head. Count Binface, a regular of British by elections, relished his moment in the sun, doing media interviews and being photo-bombed by the hard core of the Monster Raving Looney Party. Andy Burnham shakes hands with 'Count Binface' with a candidate dressed as a fox All good fun, unless you are a Liberal Democrat candidate and are polling a handful of votes ahead of Count Binface. Or the guy in the fox outfit campaigning for animal rights. But if Mr Burnham could mobilise not just disaffected Labour voters but "stop Farage" voters from the Conservative, Green and Liberal Democrat parties, then he might, just might, be the kind of leader that Labour MPs feel they need to stand a chance at the next general election. Britains most respected polling expert, Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University said that MR Burnham "has provided as much evidence as any Labour MP could expect from a by-election as to his potential ability to take the challenge to Reform and to fight an electoral strategy and frame an appeal that enables Labour to be competitive with Reform." "And that, above all, is what many a Labour MP is seeking," he added. But now we move to the second "impossible" element - pulling off a change of leadership that not only puts Mr Burnham in Number 10, but does so in a way that does not damage and weaken the party, the Government and the nation. There is also a B-plot thrown in for good measure - the by-election for Mayor of Greater Manchester that automatically arises from Mr Burnham’s by-election win in Makerfield. The Manchester Mayor election is set for 30 July. Mr Starmer has seized on it as a delaying tactic, saying there should be no leadership heave until the Mayoral election is out of the way – which puts off a heave until August, the political holiday season. So really, September. And "Events, dear boy" etc etc might mean Mr Burnham’s challenge fades and something turns up in Mr Starmer’s favour and he gets to live another day. Not so fast, say camp Burnham, claiming that by hanging on in this way Mr Starmer increases the prospect of Labour losing the Mayoral election, which would inevitably become a referendum on his leadership and a lightning rod for discontent. Not to mention losing control of a major Metropolitan area of three million people and a shining example of the new civic nationalism that Mr Burnham believes is key to reviving Britain and the Labour Party. Keir Starmer has seized on the Manchester Mayoral election as a delay tactic against any challenges by Andy Burnham Tellingly some in the Burnham camp have referred to the "Starmer Bunker", an obvious allusion to the great German war film "Downfall", the gift that keeps giving internet memes for all occasions involving politicians who are out of touch with reality. That was the analogy Professor Curtice went for when asked about the number of MPs reported to be backing Mr Burnham. The Labour-leaning magazine New Statesman reported on Thursday night that Mr Burnham has more than the 81 MPs needed to trigger a leadership election. The quality of that list – especially the number of cabinet ministers on it – may be decisive in pulling off the second "impossible" task – persuading Mr Starmer to set out a timetable to leave Downing Street, announce it, and go in a dignified way, rather than face a horrible internecine bloodletting and personal monstering of a contested leadership campaign. And part of that is the slow and very public bleed of political support at senior level, of the sort that brought Boris Johnson down. "If yet more Labour MPs come out and say, Keir Starmer should go, Andy Burnham should be made his successor. There will come a point where he's effectively at the same point with Boris Johnson" said Professor Curtice on Friday. He added: "If indeed - if only at the end point - this means that we begin to get yet more ministerial resignations such that, as Boris Johnson eventually found out, he could no longer fill a governmental administration. At that point, the game is over. "So we'll wait and see whether or not we reach that point, but certainly the risk to Keir Starmer - that basically the citadel is going to crumble beneath his feet, whatever his protestations - that risk has been increased by the size of Andy Burnham's victory." The conventional wisdom among the Whitehall and Westminster watchers right now is that Mr Burnham will hold off for a few days to give Mr Starmer time to call time on his premiership in a dignified manner. But if he doesn’t, it will get undignified. Watch out for ministerial resignations, the political equivalent of psychological torture. But even if he manages a bloodless transition, and the odds against are stacked very high as the recent history of the Conservative Party tells us, he still faces the third impossible task. That one really might be impossible. Because the task then is to use Labour’s massive parliamentary majority to force through a raft of big changes to the way Britain is run, to generate big political and economic effects, and win the next general election off the back of them – and comprehensively slay the beast of Reform UK. Change is a word Mr Burnham is increasingly using – and it's not just code for get rid of Mr Starmer. Watch: Andy Burnham speaks to RTÉ News earlier this month In an interview with RTÉ News at the start of the month, Mr Burnham used the word change four times. In his victory speech on Thursday night he said "change" six times. But in his thank you speech and look ahead to his second coming as an MP, he said "change" 17 times. And much of it stemmed from his belief that the politics of the last 40 years has failed too many people in Britain, especially in the north of England, in places like Wigan and the Makerfield constituency. "I described it last night as a last chance to change - and that’s how people here seemed to see it," he told his supporters. "When I was speaking to them on the doorsteps, they were saying: ‘Well, Andy, maybe we can give you our support this time — but it’s not a blank cheque.’ It’s not ongoing support. You have to respond to what people here are saying. He continued: "You have to do something to make life more affordable, to put more money in people’s pockets. To give people more breathing space again, so they can have a better life. "That’s what people were saying, and we must respond to it. "We need an economy that works for everybody, not just a few in far-off places, but one that works for people right here. "We do need to bring down water bills, energy bills and rail fares, just as we’ve brought down bus fares in Greater Manchester, to make life more affordable. A billboard bearing a 'vote Andy for us' message ahead of the Makerfield by-election "We do need an end to trickle-down economics, which didn’t trickle down very much at all to places like this. "We want to see a new drive of re-industrialisation across the North of England, and across the country as a whole. "And that requires a big change in Whitehall — particularly in public procurement. "It’s about time we started backing British business and British industry, so that we can re-industrialise places like this." These were all standard soft left soundbites, minus the hard detail. Especially the detail of how it might be paid for by challenged government finances. The "red scare" is being deployed against Mr Burnham in the conservative press, raising the specter of bondholder vigilantes unloading on a Burnham administration in the way they did to former Conservative Prime Minster Liz Truss four years ago. Of course, a morning-after-the-victory address to campaign workers is no place for policy detail. But if it comes to a leadership contest with Kier Starmer, the Prime Minster will be advantaged by the information asymmetry that comes with the keys of Number 10. Mr Starmer is seen as a more details-oriented politician than Mr Burnham and could, his supporters say, dish out some damage to the more broad brush Mr Burnham. Once again, we are back to the issue of campaigning in poetry and governing in prose. But Mr Burnham is the one on campaign, so has the public advantage of having poetry on his side. And to pull off the three "impossible" tasks to achieve his mission and become the political equivalent of Tom Cruise – the Top Gun of the Labour Party – Mr Burnham will need all the help, tricks and special effects he can muster.