The Bulgarian Paradox: Highest Birth Rate, Lowest Living Standards

Bulgaria continues to stand out as one of the European Union's biggest contradictions, ranking at the top of several positive indicators while also remaining among the bloc's weakest performers in measures tied to quality of life, according to the latest Eurostat data. The statistics paint a picture of a country that has made progress in employment and wage growth while still struggling with poverty, demographic decline, and low living standards. Although Bulgaria remains the least expensive place to live in the EU, it also records the bloc's lowest standard of living and one of the highest risks of poverty and social exclusion. Eurostat's latest overview of the European Union highlights Bulgaria as a country gradually closing the gap with the rest of Europe in some economic areas but continuing to lag behind in others. The result is a combination of strengths and weaknesses rarely seen elsewhere in the Union. One of the most striking examples is the country's demographic profile. Bulgaria now has the highest fertility rate in the EU, with an average of 1.72 children per woman, well above the European average of 1.34. France and Hungary follow, while Malta, Spain, and Lithuania report the lowest fertility rates. Despite leading the bloc in births per woman, Bulgaria is also experiencing the fastest population decline. Between 2015 and 2025, the country's population shrank by 8.4%, the steepest decrease among EU member states. Unlike many Western European countries that offset low birth rates through immigration, Bulgaria continues to lose population because of both negative natural growth and emigration. The situation is further complicated by the shrinking number of women of childbearing age, an aging population, and one of Europe's highest mortality rates. As a result, higher fertility has not been enough to reverse the long-term demographic decline. Life expectancy also remains the lowest in the European Union. Bulgarians live an average of 75.8 years, more than five years below the EU average. While countries such as Spain, Italy, and Malta have average life expectancies exceeding 84 years, Bulgaria continues to trail the rest of the bloc despite some recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. High mortality, chronic illness, limited healthcare access in some regions, and population aging continue to weigh on the figures. The labor market presents a more encouraging picture. Employment across the EU reached a record 76.1% among people aged 20 to 64 in 2025, and Bulgaria has moved closer to the European average. Although countries including Malta, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Estonia continue to post the strongest employment rates, Bulgaria has steadily narrowed the gap. The country has also recorded one of the largest improvements in unemployment over the past year. Eurostat data show Bulgaria's unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points, making it one of the three biggest annual declines in the EU. Only Greece, with a 1.2-point drop, and Spain, with a 0.9-point decline, recorded larger improvements. The stronger labor market reflects several factors, including persistent labor shortages, historically low unemployment, rising demand for workers in manufacturing, construction, and services, as well as steadily increasing wages. Yet this progress brings another contradiction. Like much of Europe, Bulgaria faces a shortage of workers, but largely because its population is shrinking rather than because of exceptionally rapid economic growth. With fewer people entering the workforce each year, unemployment naturally declines while employers increasingly struggle to fill vacant positions. Together, the figures illustrate a country making measurable economic progress while confronting deep structural demographic and social challenges that continue to shape its long-term outlook.