Constitution amendment: How Tinubu is driving restructuring of Nigerian federalism

There is a difference between a popular leader and a consequential one. Popular leaders give the people what they want today. Consequential leaders give the nation what it needs for tomorrow, and they are willing to absorb the political cost of doing so. By that measure, no leader on the African continent today carries greater consequence than President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, home to more than 200 million people, one in every six Africans. It is the continent’s largest democracy, its cultural engine, and the anchor of West Africa’s economy and security architecture. Whoever leads Nigeria does not merely lead a country; he steers a significant fraction of Africa’s destiny. When Nigeria stumbles, the continent limps. When Nigeria rises, Africa’s centre of gravity shifts with it. That is precisely why the reforms of the past three years matter far beyond our borders. Every Nigerian president since 1999 knew that the petrol subsidy was fiscally ruinous and that the multiple exchange rate regime was a machine for arbitrage and corruption. Every one of them flinched. On his very first day in office, President Tinubu did not. ‘Subsidy is gone’ was not a slogan; it was the single most politically dangerous economic decision taken by any African head of state in a generation. He followed it immediately with the unification of the foreign exchange market, dismantling a distortion that had haemorrhaged national wealth for decades. The early cost was brutal, but the president asked Nigerians to judge him by the health of the recovery. Three years on, the evidence is accumulating in his favour. The economy grew at an average of 3.19% in 2024, strengthening to 3.85% in 2025, and posting 3.89% growth in the first quarter of 2026. Headline inflation, which peaked above 25%, has fallen to 15.91%, with core inflation cooling and the naira stabilizing around N1,400 to the dollar. The Electricity Act 2023 broke a sixty-year federal monopoly, handing states the power to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity. The banking recapitalisation exercise saw thirty-three of thirty-six banks comply, lifting aggregate banking capital by over 60%. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund and Consumer Credit Scheme have disbursed over N200 billion to low and middle-income citizens. The State Police Services Bill, 2026, aims to establish state police forces, marking a constitutional taboo’s end. If ratified, this would restructure Nigerian federalism profoundly, with policing closer to communities and improved response times. Critics warn of potential misuse, but safeguards are embedded in the bill. President Tinubu’s strategic support for domestic refining, including the naira-for-crude arrangement with the Dangote Refinery, has positioned Nigeria as Africa’s emerging refining hub. This move has stabilized Nigeria’s energy sector, allowing it to export fuel across West, Central, and East Africa. The reforms aim to transform Nigeria into a self-sufficient economy, with states competing for development and a stable currency. While challenges remain, such as debt service and food inflation, the trajectory is clear: Nigeria is moving toward a more independent and prosperous future under President Tinubu’s leadership.