Jackson Hole kicks off after upside PCE surprise

In focus today, economic attention is on Norway’s Q2 GDP growth (expected at 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously), the ECB’s July meeting minutes, and the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference. The Fed’s Jackson Hole event, with a focus on "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," will feature remarks by Chairman Warsh, who is expected to provide little forward guidance on monetary policy for September. Meanwhile, Japan’s August inflation data will show a decline below 2% due to energy subsidies, with domestic price pressures remaining low. In China, industrial profits rose 17.6% year-over-year in the first seven months of 2026, slowing from prior strong growth, with state-owned enterprises and joint-stock companies posting gains of 16.3% and 23.6%, respectively. Geopolitically, reports suggest Vladimir Putin is escalating attacks on Ukraine after failed peace talks, with potential cyber-attacks or small-scale ground operations planned against NATO member Baltic countries. In the US, July headline PCE inflation came in at 3.7% y/y, unchanged from June, and 0.2% m/m, exceeding expectations. Markets reacted hawkishly, pricing in a September Fed rate hike. Sweden’s July PPI remained flat at 0.1% m/m and 6.4% y/y, with import and export price increases offset by lower domestic prices. Equities were little changed, but tech-heavy Asian markets and US futures showed gains. Nvidia’s earnings showed stellar revenue growth of 106% y/y, with guidance for 70% growth in fiscal 2028, reinforcing supply-constrained growth. The USD strengthened on stronger-than-expected PCE inflation, with EUR/USD dropping to 1.1650. US Treasuries yields rose, and the RBA is now pricing in a full hike for September. NOK/SEK stabilized at 1.02 after oil price declines and weaker SEK.